Here & Now

Here & Now for August 14, 2020

Announcer:

A PBS Wisconsin original production. The following program is part of our “Here & Now” 2020 election coverage.

Zac Schultz:

I’m Zac Schultz, filling in for Frederica Freyberg. Tonight on “Here & Now,” presidential primary candidate Mayor Pete Buttigieg is here. He’ll tout the Biden/Harris ticket that awaits nomination next week. Marquette Law School Pollster Charles Franklin has the latest state numbers on the presidential race and the return of the “Here & Now” political panel on the eve of the conventions. We welcome back Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross. It’s “Here & Now” for August 14th.

Announcer:

Funding for “Here & Now” is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.

Joe Biden:

Your next vice president of the United States, Kamala Harris. Kamala.

Zac Schultz:

It’s official. California U.S. Senator Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for vice president. Joe Biden formally introduced his running mate Wednesday from a stage at a Wilmington, Delaware high school. While the candidates and convention speakers will not take the podium in Milwaukee next week, convention speakers will appear nightly including former South Bend mayor and primary candidate for president, Democrat Pete Buttigieg. Mayor Buttigieg joins us now from South Bend. Thanks for your time today.

Pete Buttigieg:

Thanks for having me. Good to be with you.

Zac Schultz:

What are your impressions of Kamala Harris as Joe Biden’s running mate?

Pete Buttigieg:

I think it’s a terrific choice. I think she’ll be a great running mate and I think she’ll be a great vice president. You know, you learn a lot about somebody when you’re competing together over the course of a year. I have seen her intellect. I have seen her compassion. She’s somebody that really understands what’s at stake and has been so effective in the Senate. I think it’s a great choice on the vice president’s part.

Zac Schultz:

We’re on the eve of a virtual Democratic National Convention. The people of Milwaukee are crushed that no one will be here. Is there still anything in this convention for them?

Pete Buttigieg:

Well, you know what? Of course I feel the same way. I was delighted by the decision to host our Democratic Convention in the Midwest. Because I think it sends an important message. I do think that you know the name of Milwaukee, and the themes that really propelled the party to host the convention there, that’s going to continue to be heard and be on our hearts all through this week. Of course, we wish we were gathering in person. This is a decision, a tough one made out of the respect for the health and safety of people from around the country and certainly in Milwaukee. I would contrast that with the decision to really endanger the lives of Oklahomans when the president thought it was okay to host an indoor rally as coronavirus cases were spiking. This is — these are the times we live in and it’s unfortunate, but, I don’t think it takes away from the symbolic importance of reaching out to Wisconsin, to our part of the country overall and I think you’ll see that reflected in many ways throughout the next few days.

Zac Schultz:

Now you mentioned this while the Democrats aren’t coming Republicans are. Donald Trump has announced plans to be in Oshkosh, Wisconsin on Monday night. What does that tell voters here?

Pete Buttigieg:

Well again, if he’s planning to gather in a way that’s unsafe, then what it tells voters is that he doesn’t respect them. You know, the truth is, that I think there’s a basic level of regard that this president just doesn’t have for the safety of the American people and even for his own supporters. You know the fact that they insisted that people go to his rallies sign a waiver in case they get infected even while he is saying they’re going to be safe tells you just the mentality here. Now that being said, of course the president also recognizes that his reelection depends in part on votes in the middle of the country. That’s why I think it is so important for us to continue reaching out with the message that Joe Biden is the president who actually cares about us here in this part of the country. He’s somebody who understands what it will take to get our economy back on its feet. Somebody who will listen to doctors and scientists in order to get us out from this pandemic and somebody who will reverse the disastrous decisions that this president has made that have brought agriculture in our part of the country to its knees. The number of dairy bankruptcies alone is shocking and disturbing. We just can’t take four more years of this.

Zac Schultz:

You are on the DNC schedule to speak Thursday evening and there’s a big difference between giving a speech in a crowded room versus speaking into your laptop. Can an online convention still inspire and energize voters?

Pete Buttigieg:

Of course it’s going to be different this year but I think most of us, if we’re being honest, know that you know the format of the political convention, it was due to be changed or refreshed anyway. For the last 30 or 40 years, it’s come to feel more and more staged, more and more predictable and so, you know there’s never going to be another one like what we’re doing in 2020. At least I certainly hope not because there will only be circumstances like this, but I also think it’s safe to say that conventions will never go quite back to the old way and maybe that’s not such a bad thing.

Zac Schultz:

How will Wisconsin specifically be better off with a Joe Biden presidency?

Pete Buttigieg:

Well you know manufacturing was in a recession even before the pandemic hit. And as I mentioned earlier, you know parts of the country like Indiana, like Wisconsin have really paid the price for the reckless trade wars, backward policies, the consolidation that’s going on in agriculture. Whether you live in a city, in an industrial area or in rural areas, we need better leadership in this country and I think communities around Wisconsin are prime example of why we need a leader who really gets what it’s like to be in the middle class because he’s from the middle class. You know the current president, he only views our part of the country as scenery when he’s going between golf courses with his name on it and it shows in policy choices that again and again have put American workers and American farmers last. We’ve got a chance to change that. This is our only chance to change that and Wisconsin communities, whether we’re talking about farms or whether we’re talking about climate change are uniquely vulnerable to the threats of this moment. That’s why we’ve got to have a president who understands before it’s too late.

Zac Schultz:

We have just a few seconds left, but recent polling has shown people are either voting for Trump or against Trump. Does Joe Biden need to inspire voters or is he better off just letting Trump do all of the talking?

Pete Buttigieg:

I think we’ve got to do both. Look as far as I’m concerned the disastrous behavior of this administration and the Trump White House should be motivation enough. But we also have to talk about what we’re for. And I’m not just against Donald Trump. I’m for the Biden/Harris ticket because I know that that will be an administration of compassion, of competence, of integrity and that should be energizing for the party as we look ahead to November.

Zac Schultz:

Mayor Pete Buttigieg thanks for your time today.

Pete Buttigieg:

Good to be with you. Thanks for having me.

Zac Schultz:

We are just 80 days away from the November election, but if the election was held today, the latest Marquette Law School Poll would be able to tell us who would win. We’re joined now by Poll Director Charles Franklin. Thanks for your time today Charles.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you. The one thing we know this year is the election won’t be today. So that’s a hypothetical.

Zac Schultz:

Yes. Now let’s start with the biggest race and Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump remains about the same with likely voters.

Charles Franklin:

With likely voters we see a five point Biden lead. In June with likely voters, it was a six point margin so just the smallest of change from last month to this month. I think we’ve seen a fairly stable race throughout the year. Polling over the last 12 months has averaged a Biden lead of about four points or so. It’s increased just a little bit in June and now in this poll, fallen back a tad to the five point margin.

Zac Schultz:

Now one of the reasons we talk about likely voters instead of registered voters this time of year is that not all registered voters are certain to vote or very enthusiastic about voting in November. And your polling shows that’s about the same for Democrats and Republicans, but there’s a drop-off for independents.

Charles Franklin:

That is right. This is characteristic. Independents who are not partisan are also often at least somewhat, less involved politically, less sure that they’re going to vote. What’s interesting this time is Democrats and Republicans are almost identical in certainty to vote, and in measured enthusiasm. That wasn’t true in 2018 when Democrats had a bit of an advantage. But it’s the independents who are less than 10% of the electorate, but still the group most likely to swing one way or another that are interesting to watch here.

Zac Schultz:

And a swing state like Wisconsin where the margin of victory is always just a few percentage points, independents are a solid percentage. And over the last three polls, you show independents moving towards Joe Biden. Is that correct?

Charles Franklin:

That’s right. Donald Trump had an advantage with independents earlier in the year. And then in June, we saw Biden take a lead with independents and continue that in this August poll. The margins are not large, and the other thing striking about independents is how many of them say, they’re currently planning to vote for neither candidate or they don’t know how they’ll vote.

Zac Schultz:

That’s right. Among independents there is still that solid percentage that are undecided. It adds up to 18% in your August poll. We should acknowledge the larger margin of error on these next set of numbers, but for all of 2020 the reason those independents are undecided is it seems like they just don’t like either candidate.

Charles Franklin:

That really stands out in these data. The reason we put several months together is precisely so we can zoom in on this small part of the electorate, but a fairly important one. Sometimes this group has real lopsided views of candidates, but this time you see, they’re not fans of Donald Trump, but also not fans of Biden. In Biden’s case, there’s a lot of people who say they don’t know enough about Biden to have an opinion yet. But it’s also the case that neither of them have favorability numbers that even reach 20%. Now, the race is just kicking off. You know we haven’t done the conventions yet which is usually the point at which people start to tune in if though are not chronically paying attention to campaign news. And, we have the entire fall to run. So, you know it’s unlikely that as many as we’re seeing here, will ultimately not vote or vote for a third party. But, it is an important point for where we stand today.

Zac Schultz:

We’ll never escape the shadow of the 2016 election so let’s look back four years ago. These are the results from your poll August 25, 2016. Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by just three points, but at that time 21% of voters were undecided or voting third party. I know you haven’t polled third party candidates by name at this point, but is it fair to say the number of undecided or third party voters is much smaller this time around?

Charles Franklin:

Yes. It does seem to be at this point. And when we add third party candidates is when they are officially certified on the ballot so that will happen soon and we will start asking about them by name. But, what you saw in 2016 was a pretty negative electorate that had strongly negative views of both Trump and of Clinton. Different people for the most part. But, about 20% were negative towards both Clinton and Trump. And that helped drive up the third party vote in 2016, to about 5 or 6% statewide which is unusually large for us in a presidential election. This year, there’s a very split electorate on Donald Trump, but there are very few people that are indifferent to him. As you just saw, Joe Biden has more people that don’t have a strong opinion of him. So we don’t know how that will shape up as the campaign develops. But at the moment, there are fewer undecided and fewer people looking for an alternative than I think we saw in late August of 2016.

Zac Schultz:

Now moving to state politics, Governor Tony Evers recently issued a statewide mask order. Republicans in the Legislature had been talking about trying to repeal it, but these numbers may show why they haven’t. Correct?

Charles Franklin:

I think they show that the mask order itself is quite popular. 69% favored that order. Only 29% opposed it. Democrats were very lopsided 93% in favor, but even among Republicans there was a split 43 in favor, 54 opposed. So a majority of Republicans opposed, but not a large majority and a big group of Republicans in favor. We also saw that across the regions of the state, the order was approved by majorities in every region of the state. And that’s interesting because on school reopenings, we did see regional differences, but on the masks, no difference. A majority in all cases in favor of masks in public places.

Zac Schultz:

We just have a few seconds left but I want to put out this last poll about students heading back to school. The difference between parents with school-aged children and the general public is there.

Charles Franklin:

Yes it is and it frankly surprised me. The general public is 45 comfortable, 48 uncomfortable, but when we moved to people who have school-aged children in their home, 53 feel comfortable, 45 uncomfortable. You know I don’t know what to make of that. It may be that parents have more comfort level with the schools.

Zac Schultz:

All right well. Professor Charles Franklin, thank you very much for your insight this time around. We’ll see you the next time.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.

Zac Schultz:

Tuesday was the fall primary election. But for a handful of race the primary effectively decides the winner and the results show the state Legislature will be more diverse next year. In Dane County, Melissa Sargent and Kelda Helen Roys each won primaries for the State Senate and will replace two retiring white men. In Madison, an African immigrant, Samba Baldeh, and an Asian-American woman, Francesca Hong won competitive primaries in heavily Democratic districts. And in the Milwaukee suburbs, Julian Bradley, a black man won the primary in the heavily Republican 28th Senate District.

Milwaukee was supposed to be the center of the political world when it hosted the Democratic National Convention. Now it’s been virtually hollowed out, another victim of the COVID-19 pandemic. But that doesn’t mean Wisconsin’s politicians won’t try to salvage something from this week. I spoke with Governor Tony Evers and Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes, to see if there is still something to be gained from the Milwaukee DNC.

Governor Tony Evers is trying to look on the bright side.

Tony Evers:

Certainly has changed, but it’s still really important.

Zac Schultz:

If nothing else, the symbolism of the Democratic National Convention coming to Milwaukee is still there. The reason the DNC chose Milwaukee is still relevant.

Tony Evers:

One thing that hasn’t changed is that the election goes through Wisconsin.

Mandela Barnes:

It’s unfortunate that we won’t have the same impact that we intended a year ago. That breaks my heart absolutely.

Zac Schultz:

It’s harder for Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes to hide his disappointment.

Mandela Barnes:

As someone who was looking forward to showing off his city and state to tens of thousands of my closest friends, not being able to do that is going to be, um, it’s going to be a little frustrating, but at the same time, we are still going to tell a Milwaukee story.

Crowd:

Hands up! Don’t shoot!

Zac Schultz:

At this point, the only story to tell, may be one of protests.

Mandela Barnes:

That’s natural for people to want to protest at an event as large scale as the DNC was going to be or even at the scale it will be.

Tony Evers:

Certainly there are going to be protests and I frankly hope those protesters are wearing masks and doing the things they need to do to be safe. That’s really critical, but people need an outlet and I’m sure that will happen in Milwaukee.

Zac Schultz:

PBS plans nightly coverage of the virtual convention next week. I’ll appear from Milwaukee on the PBS NewsHour’s convention program during the 8:00 hour Monday night. After NewsHour’s coverage, stay with PBS Wisconsin for more at 10:00. That’s when DNC Milwaukee, a 10/36 Special will air. A co-production of Milwaukee PBS and “Here & Now.”

But you don’t have to wait until then to get great political analysis. We’re joined now by Republican strategist and Managing Partner of Capitol Consultants, Bill McCoshen and Democratic strategist and member of the State Ethics Commission Scot Ross. Thank you both for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Good to be with you.

Zac Schultz:

Let’s start with you Scot. Does a virtual Democratic convention still have value for Wisconsin and Milwaukee?

Scot Ross:

Well absolutely. I mean, Democrats are certainly sad that the convention won’t be in person here in Milwaukee, but I think with the global pandemic, that the bundling of the Trump administration has resulted in 160,000 Americans and 1,000 Wisconsinites dying from this pandemic, I think that the Democrats, you know, are going to put this all in perspective. They will be showing Vice President Biden. They will be showing Senator Harris, and they will be showing what they will do to restore honor, decency and integrity to American government so much that has been lost under Trump. And, you know the thing is that, it’s a setback, but not really because you know since Trump got inaugurated Republicans have lost seven of the eight statewide elections in Wisconsin in which they’ve participated in. That ain’t a canary in the coal mine. That’s the state of Wisconsin giving the bird to Donald Trump.

Zac Schultz:

Bill, Trump’s going to be here. Is he filling in a political advantage?

Bill McCoshen:

Well he’s doing what Biden isn’t doing. So, let me pick up on some things Scot said. First of all, I think it’s a tragedy that Milwaukee’s not getting the benefit of having a national convention but not just Milwaukee and southeast Wisconsin, it’s the entire state. These were going to be 50,000 visitors coming here spending lots and lots of money, over a five to seven day period of time and we’re not going to get any of that economic benefit. So that’s a tragedy in and of itself. The second part that I think is actually a tactical mistake by the Biden campaign is not accepting the nomination in Milwaukee. That’s a mistake. Regardless of the global pandemic, the candidate and the vice presidential nominee could easily have come to Milwaukee, accepted the nomination here, at least for the symbolic value of it. My guess is overall, Zac, both on the DNC and on the RNC, these will be the least watched national conventions ever because we’re all sick of Zoom calls.

Zac Schultz:

That is accurate. Now what impact does Kamala Harris have on the ticket? Bill, what do you think?

Bill McCoshen:

You know listen, there’s two things you want in a VP. You want to do no harm and you want at least appeal to a key coalition, a voting coalition or a geography. I think she checks both of those boxes. I don’t know that she’s going to be a difference maker here in the state of Wisconsin. Let’s face it, Paul Ryan was on the ticket with Mitt Romney in 2012 and they lost Wisconsin fairly handily. It doesn’t always make the difference you think it might. If anything, it might have a slight benefit in the city of Milwaukee where about 50,000 Democrats did not vote in 2016.

Zac Schultz:

Scot, does that make the difference? Harris on the ticket in Milwaukee?

Scot Ross:

I think Senator Harris is going to be a — is an outstanding choice and is going to be an outstanding vice president. She has focused her career on bringing equality and justice to people in California and she’s going to do that with the United States. And we couldn’t be at a more important time when we have a Republican Party that is essentially run by a white supremacist in Donald Trump. I mean daily — the daily attacks that go on are unprecedented and I think Republicans are just — we’re just all waiting to see whether or not Republicans and Trump go after Senator Harris for being a woman or being a person of color. Right now, it’s a little bit of both.

Zac Schultz:

Now, Donald Trump has been talking and tweeting a lot about defending the suburbs and speaking of Wisconsin geography, saying Democrats want to fill them with low income housing. Scot, is this just good, old-fashioned dog whistle politics or is there a reality here about housing and the suburbs?

Scot Ross:

It’s not a dog whistle. It’s a blow horn. Trump has only one chance and that is if he can cheat in order to win this election. And he is trying to — but he is trying to bring every racist along with him. It’s unfortunate because Wisconsin is better than that. You know, we are better than that whether you are Republican, Democrat or independent. The problem is, is that, we can’t continue to function this way. We need adult leadership. That’s what Joe Biden is going it bring. He’s going to bring again that you know that idea of listening, of learning and acting like an adult.

Zac Schultz:

Bill, how does this play in Milwaukee suburbs?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, in the most recent Marquette Poll Trump’s numbers in the suburbs are actually up. And the issues that voters care about like defunding the police, is overwhelmingly negative for Democrats. So, I think Republicans are actually better positioned in the suburbs today than they were two months ago on the Marquette Poll. That’s going to continue. I don’t think the president needs to call out, “Hey suburbs, I’m talking to you” with this tweet. I think that’s unnecessary and somewhat of an unforced error, but the reality is, if he keeps talking about law and order, defending the cops, safe neighborhoods, he’s going to do well in the suburbs. There’s no doubt about that.

Zac Schultz:

Republicans have been working to get rapper Kanye West on the ballot in Wisconsin. Bill, is this from the dirty trick playbook or is it all fair game in presidential politics?

Bill McCoshen:

Listen, a little bit of dirty tricks but I think he will get on the ballot. I mean our Elections Commission is generally tends to lean towards the candidate if they came close unless there is some significant errors in the nominations. At the end of the day Zac, he’s probably a protest vote, but so was Jill Stein. Remember Jill Stein got 2 or 2 1/2% percent here and that was the difference in 2016. So, depending on where Kanye gets his votes from and if he does any advertising particularly in the central city of Milwaukee, he could get that 2 or 3%.

Zac Schultz:

Scot, does Kanye take Black votes away from Joe Biden in Milwaukee?

Scot Ross:

Absolutely not. I think it’s a good indication of how out of touch the Republican Party is with Black voters that they would think in the midst an economic collapse, global pandemic and a white supremacist in the White House, there are people who would flip their vote because Kanye West is on the ballot. It’s simply not going to happen. I think the interesting thing that will happen as Bill said, what the Elections Commission is going to do. And you have two members, the two Republican — two of the three Republican members who are on the record saying a deadline is a deadline. So it seems pretty hard for them to reverse on that. We’ll see if they do, but it’s not going to make a difference. Democrats should ignore it because I don’t think their strategy had anything to do with catching a voter who would flip to Kanye West because he’s on the ballot.

Bill McCoshen:

If the Elections Commission bounces somebody for being 14 seconds late, it will be the first time they followed their own rules.

Zac Schultz:

This week we’ve heard a number of stories about Trump’s post master general reorganizing the postal service resulting in shut downs and slowdowns in mail delivery. Trump himself said he won’t support additional funds for the post office to help with all of the mail-in ballots. Scot, the Marquette Poll shows most Democrats plan to vote by mail this fall. Should the party rethink that plan?

Scot Ross:

Absolutely not. What should happen is the Democrats need to rise up in Congress and try to work with Republicans to stop what is going to be — what is an attempted stealing of our election. I mean it is as simple as that. But it’s not just the election. I mean, seniors, veterans, [inaudible] their medicine. You know, this is just again another way in which the Republicans have acted. You know in Wisconsin, they don’t do anything. Governor Evers has been trying to get them to come to the table for 120 days and they won’t do anything. Donald Trump, on the other hand, is going around by just flat out trying to prevent people from voting.

Zac Schultz:

Bill, does the post office factor into this race in Wisconsin?

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t think it does. I don’t think it’s an issue that voters vote about. It’s not a top tier issue for sure and I think it will ultimately get resolved before the end of the Congressional fiscal year which is September 30th. I’m not sure it’s going to get resolved in August but I think it will get resolved as part of the budget deal at the end of the year.

Scot Ross:

I think it’s a little hard to say it’s not resolved because they are literally taking out sorting equipment to try and thwart the post office from being able to do its job.

Zac Schultz:

A couple seconds left for each of you. What do you think the impact of these conventions will be? Bill, we’ll start with you. Just a few seconds.

Bill McCoshen:

I’d say, you know, look for the Thursday nights where the two nominees get their nomination to be the biggest nights. Look for Trump to put on a show. He is a showman, and you know I would expect to see a pretty good turnout on the Thursday nights, but these will be the least watched conventions in our lifetime and the next time you will talk about these candidates is after the first debate.

Zac Schultz:

Scot, what about you?

Scot Ross:

I’m incredibly saddened that we won’t see a sea of cheese heads in the Fiserv forum, but I think we’re going to hear a lot of reasons, a lot of difference between the Democrats and the Republicans and I think the Democratic message is what is going to resonate with the American people.

Zac Schultz:

Thank you both for your time. I really appreciate it.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:

Good to back with you.

Zac Schultz:

PBS NewsHour’s coverage of the Democrats’ virtual convention in Milwaukee starts Monday night at 7:00. Then at 10:00 p.m. Monday, Milwaukee PBS and “Here & Now” presents “DNC 2020 Milwaukee: A ’10/36′ Special.” That’s all for tonight’s program. Frederica Freyberg returns next Friday night where we’ll have a complete wrap-up of the DNC. I’m Zac Schultz, have a great weekend.

Announcer:

For more “Here & Now” 2020 election coverage, go to PBS.org and click on news. Funding for “Here & Now” is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.