Here & Now

UW Political Science Professor Forecasts Monday Debate

ZAC SCHULTZ:

SO WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM THIS FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE? FOR THAT WE TURN TO MICHAEL WAGNER, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR AT THE UW SCHOOL OF JOURNALISM. THANKS FOR YOUR TIME TODAY.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

MY PLEASURE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS DEBATE SINCE THE CONVENTION. SUPER BOWL OF POLITICS, BREAKING VIEWING RECORDS. ARE YOU EXPECTING ALL THAT?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I IMAGINE THE DEBATE WILL PULL A VERY GOOD NUMBER IN TERMS OF THE PEOPLE WHO WATCH IT. THERE’S A LOT OF PEOPLE INTERESTED IN THIS DEBATE. THERE’S HIGH STAKES. THE RACE IS VERY, VERY CLOSE. AND SO THERE’S THE FEELING THAT ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN AND THAT ANYTHING COULD AFFECT THE RESULTS. THE HISTORY OF PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES IS THAT THEY TEND NOT TO BE DETERMINATIVE OF WHO WINS, BUT CERTAINLY ALL EYES WILL BE ON THIS ON MONDAY NIGHT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WE’VE HEARD HILLARY CLINTON IS DOING A LOT OF DEBATE PREP AND DONALD TRUMP IS DOING EITHER NONE OR VERY LITTLE. WHAT CAN WE TAKE AWAY FROM THAT?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I THINK IT JUST SPEAKS TO BOTH OF THEIR OWN PERSONAL STYLES. SECRETARY CLINTON IS ONE WHO REALLY LIKES TO PREPARE. SHE HAS DONE A LOT OF DEBATES THROUGHOUT HER CAREER RUNNING FOR SENATE TWICE IN NEW YORK. RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT TWICE. SHE DOES THIS A LOT. THIS IS HER WAY OF DOING IT. AND DONALD TRUMP FEELS THAT HE’S MORE SUCCESSFUL WHEN HE’S FREE-WHEELING AND LESS IN HIS HEAD WITH HONED ANSWERS AND MORE SPEAKING KIND OF FROM THE GUT OR FROM THE HIP. SO THAT SEEMS TO BE THE STYLE HE PREFERS. HE THINKS THAT HE DOES BETTER WHEN HE DOES IT. AND I THINK SECRETARY CLINTON FEELS MORE PREPARED AND READY TO GO WHEN SHE DOES THE WORK THAT SHE’S DOING WITH HER BRIEFING BOOKS AND PRACTICE MOCK DEBATE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

SO WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN TERMS OF TONE? CERTAINLY DONALD TRUMP HAS INSULTED A LOT OF HIS REPUBLICAN OPPONENTS ALONG THE WAY BUT THAT WAS FOR A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AUDIENCE.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I THINK THAT’S A GOOD QUESTION. AND IT SPEAKS TO THE PREPARATION. HILLARY CLINTON IS PREPARING REPORTEDLY FOR TWO DONALD TRUMPS — THE SEDATE, CALM, MORE QUOTE UNQUOTE PRESIDENTIAL-LOOKING DONALD TRUMP OR THE FREE-WHEELING ONE THAT WE SAY CALL MARCO RUBIO “LITTLE MARCO” AND CALL SCOTT WALKER’S WISCONSIN A DISASTER AND CALL TED CRUZ “LYING TED.” AND SO WHICH ONE OF THOSE TRUMPS OR IF BOTH OF THOSE TRUMPS SHOWS UP, WE DON’T KNOW. AND I THINK SECRETARY CLINTON IS PREPARING FOR BOTH. IT’S UNCLEAR I THINK WHAT DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO DO. THAT’S ONE OF THE REASONS THERE’S SO MUCH TENSION GOING INTO THIS FIRST DEBATE IS WHICH DONALD TRUMP IS GOING TO SHOW UP IS A REAL QUESTION.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THIS WILL BE THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WITH A WOMAN ON THE STAGE, ONE OF THE CANDIDATES.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

RIGHT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

HOW WILL THAT GENDER DYNAMIC IMPACT HOW THEY PERFORM AND THEN ALSO HOW WE PERCEIVE WHAT’S GOING ON?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I DON’T KNOW THAT IT WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH THEY PERFORM. IT’S POSSIBLE THAT SOMETHING COULD HAPPEN THAT MAKES GENDER DYNAMICS SALIENT. WHEN HILLARY CLINTON WAS RUNNING FOR THE SENATE, HER OPPONENT RICK LAZIO WALKED OVER TO HER PODIUM, TRIED TO GET HER TO SIGN SOMETHING. PEOPLE VIEWED THAT AS AGGRESSIVE AND GENDERED. I WOULDN’T EXPECT DONALD TRUMP TO DO SOMETHING LIKE THAT. I IMAGINE THAT BEING FROM NEW YORK HE’S PROBABLY FAMILIAR WITH THAT HAPPENING AND I’M SURE HIS STAFF IS ALSO AT LEAST HAS THAT IN HIS MIND. I DON’T KNOW THAT WE SHOULD EXPECT THAT FROM THE CANDIDATES. PEOPLE SOMETIMES DO INTERPRET THE WAY THAT PEOPLE, MEN AND WOMEN COMMUNICATE DIFFERENTLY. IT’S ALSO THE CASE THAT PEOPLE NOT JUST LOOK AT GENDER, BUT THE BODY LANGUAGE OF CANDIDATES AND THERE’S SOME WORK THAT SUGGESTS NOT EVEN THE SUBSTANCE OF WHAT WE’RE SAYING IS WHAT MATTERS, BUT THE WAY THAT THE INFORMATION IS PRESENTED. THERE COULD BE SOME ELEMENTS OF THAT THAT INFLUENCE HOW REGULAR PEOPLE INTERPRET WHAT’S HAPPENING ON THAT STAGE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF FANS OF HILLARY CLINTON OVER THE YEARS SAYING SHE’S HELD TO A DOUBLE STANDARD, PEOPLE WILL FOCUS ON WHAT SHE’S WEARING RATHER THAN WHAT SHE’S SAYING. OR HOW SHE REACTS AS A FEMALE CANDIDATE. WHAT ATTITUDE DOES THAT PORTRAY? ARE THERE GOING TO BE PEOPLE LOOKING AT THAT NO MATTER HAPPENS?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I THINK SO. EVEN MATT LAUER IN THE NBC COMMANDER IN CHIEF FORUM THEY HAD, WHERE THE CANDIDATES APPEARED ON THE SAME STAGE BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME, LAUER TOLD HILLARY CLINTON TO SMILE. CANDIDATES GET THIS STUFF A LOT. THEY GET IT IN POST-GAME ANALYSIS. THEY GET IT ON SOCIAL MEDIA. THEY PROBABLY GET IT FROM THEIR HANDLERS TOO. IT’S CERTAINLY SOMETHING THAT’S A PART OF THIS PREPARATION PROCESS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW, IT’S GENERALLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT HILLARY CLINTON HAS A BETTER GRASP ON POLICY THAN DONALD TRUMP. DOES THAT LOWER THE BAR FOR TRUMP? DOES HE HAVE A LOWER HURDLE TO LOOK PRESIDENTIAL THEN?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN CERTAINLY IS TRYING TO PAINT THAT PICTURE. AND SO A LOT OF TIMES IN A DEBATE BOTH CAMPAIGNS WILL LOWER EXPECTATIONS TO THE POINT WHERE IF THE CANDIDATE DOESN’T TRIP AND FALL OR START SCREAMING INCOHERENTLY, THEY’VE CLEARED THE BAR. I THINK DONALD TRUMP DOES NOT HAVE A REPUTATION FOR POLICY SPECIFICS. YOU GO TO HIS WEBSITE, THERE’S NOT MUCH POLICY INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT HE WANTS TO DO. AND SO THAT BAR IS PRETTY LOW FOR HIM. IF HE DOESN’T MAKE SOME KIND OF MAJOR FACT ERROR ABOUT THE STATE OF THE WORLD, HAVING A “WHAT’S ALLEPO” MOMENT LIKE GARY JOHNSON, THE LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE DID IN THE LIVE INTERVIEW, HE’LL PROBABLY GET SOME GOOD COVERAGE SAYING THAT HE DID A GOOD JOB GIVEN HIS PREPARATION.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

IN 2012 MOST OBSERVERS SAID THAT MITT ROMNEY WON THE FIRST DEBATE OVER PRESIDENT OBAMA. THE NEXT DAY OBAMA WAS ON BASCOM HILL HERE ON THE UW CAMPUS FOR A RALLY, FILLED THE HILL, AND HE EVEN JOKED ABOUT HIS LACKLUSTER DEBATE. CAN SOMEONE RECOVER FROM SOMETHING LIKE THAT? FROM A LOUSY DEBATE PERFORMANCE? CAN IT HAPPEN THIS TIME?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

ABSOLUTELY. BARACK OBAMA SURE RECOVERED WINNING RE-ELECTION. USUALLY THE FIRST DEBATE FOR A SITTING PRESIDENT IS TRADITIONALLY THE WORST ONE BECAUSE IT’S THE ONE THEY PREPARE FOR THE LEAST. AND THEN IT’S BROUGHT INTO SHARP RELIEF THAT I NEED TO PREPARE FOR THESE. WE HAVE AN OPEN SEAT RACE NOW AND HILLARY CLINTON CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE PREPARING. TRUMP IS DOING WHAT HE DOES BEFORE DEBATES. IT’S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS A CANDIDATE COULD RECOVER. THE FIRST DEBATE IS USUALLY THE MOST WATCHED, BUT IT’S ALSO NOT HIGHLY CORRELATED WITH THE FINAL RESULT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THE MODERATOR IN THIS DEBATE? WE’VE ALREADY SEEN BOTH SIDES TRYING TO POSITION THEMSELVES ON WHAT LESTER HOLT SHOULD DO? SHOULD HE FACT CHECK IN THE MOMENT? SHOULD HE WAIT UNTIL AFTERWARD AND LET SOMEONE ELSE DO THAT?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

THAT’S A RISK BECAUSE IF YOU FACT CHECK IN THE MOMENT IN A WAY THAT’S PERCEIVED AS BEING UNFAIR TO ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER, THEN THE STORY BECOMES ABOUT THE MODERATOR, WHICH IS SOMETHING MODERATORS WANT TO AVOID. BUT IF YOU LET A BLATANT FALSEHOOD GO BY, YOU’RE DOING A DISSERVICE TO THE TENS OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WATCHING WHO MIGHT BELIEVE THAT WHAT WAS SAID IS TRUE WHEN IN FACT IT’S NOT TRUE. SO MY PREFERENCE WOULD BE FOR MODERATORS TO BE PREPARED ENOUGH TO KNOW WHETHER CERTAIN STATEMENTS THAT WERE MADE IF THEY WEREN’T TRUE, WOULD BE THE KIND OF THING WHERE THE MODERATOR MIGHT STEP IN AND SAY WELL ACCORDING TO THIS DATA AND READ FROM DATA, NOT JUST GOING FROM THEIR OWN MEMORY BUT SAYING ACCORDING TO THIS PREPARATION I’VE DONE, THAT STATEMENT’S NOT QUITE RIGHT. I THINK THAT WOULD BE VALUABLE FOR PEOPLE WHO WATCH THE DEBATE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

DO WE EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN? MATT LAUER GOT CRITICIZED QUITE A BIT FOR NOT FACT CHECKING DONALD TRUMP SAYING HE’D BEEN OPPOSED TO THE IRAQ WAR BEFORE IT STARTED.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I DON’T THINK WE KNOW ABOUT LESTER HOLT’S VIEW OF HIS JOB. WE KNOW CHRIS WALLACE WHO WILL MODERATE A LATER DEBATE HAS SAID IT’S NOT HIS JOB TO CALL BALLS AND STRIKES. IT’S HIS JOB TO ASK QUESTIONS. I THINK I LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE MODERATOR.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WHAT WILL YOU BE DOING MONDAY NIGHT? WHAT WILL YOU BE LOOKING?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I’LL BE AT UNION SOUTH WITH THE ELECTIONS RESEARCH CENTER FOLKS WATCHING THE DEBATE WITH STUDENTS AND THEN OFFERING SOME KIND OF QUICK ANALYSIS AND TAKING THEIR QUESTIONS AFTER. WHAT I’LL BE LOOKING FOR IS HOW PEOPLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA ARE REACTING IN THE MOMENT. IT USED TO BE THAT THE SPIN ROOM AFTER THE DEBATE WOULD LARGELY DETERMINE HOW VOTERS AT HOME DECIDED WHO WON. WATCHING THE COVERAGE OF WHO DID BEST. NOW THIS HAPPENS IN REAL TIME. AND A LOT OF WORK THAT THE SOCIAL MEDIA AND DEMOCRACY GROUP HERE AT UW DOES SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTUAL SPIN BY POLITICIANS, ACTIVISTS AND REGULAR CITIZENS WATCHING THE DEBATE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK SHAPE OUR ATTITUDES. SO THE NARRATIVE THERE IS ONE PLACE I’LL BE LOOKING.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

A LOT TO WATCH FOR.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

IT’LL BE A LOT OF FUN.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THANKS FOR YOUR TIME TODAY.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

MY PLEASURE.