Here & Now

Professor Michael Wagner Examines Trump, Walker Campaign

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

NOW TO THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RACE. GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER WAS BACK IN IOWA THIS WEEK. THEN TODAY HE GAVE A FOREIGN POLICY SPEECH AT A SOUTH CAROLINA MILITARY ACADEMY. WE TAKE STOCK OF THE GOVERNOR’S NATIONAL CAMPAIGN NOW WITH MICHAEL WAGNER, A PROFESSOR OF JOURNALISM AT UW-MADISON. THANKS A LOT FOR BEING HERE.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

IT’S MY PLEASURE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO A LOT HAS HAPPENED IN THE WORLD OF PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS AND CAMPAIGNS SINCE THE LAST TIME WE SPOKE. NAMELY, TRUMP.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

RIGHT. RIGHT. FOR SURE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WHAT IS HE DOING TO THIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

HE’S TAKING UP ALL THE OXYGEN THAT’S FOR SURE. HE’S TAKKING UP ALL THE AIR TIME. HE’S MAKING IT HARD FOR A LOT OF THESE CANDIDATES TO INTRODUCE THEMSELVES TO THE VOTERS. MOST OF THE CANDIDATES PROBABLY THOUGHT I’LL HAVE THE SUMMER TO DISTINGUISH MYSELF IN THIS GROUP OF 16. BUT THIS GROUP OF 16 IS 17. AND NUMBER 17 IS A SUPER-RICH REALITY TELEVISION STAR WHO WILL SAY ANYTHING AT ANY TIME AND THAT’S REALLY ELECTRIFIED THE NEWS MEDIA, A SEGMENT OF THE PUBLIC AND ABOUT A QUARTER OF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS. IT’S BEEN DIFFICULT I THINK FOR SOME OF THESE OTHER CANDIDATES WHO ARE USED TO RUNNING AGAINST POLITICIANS TO THINK ABOUT HOW THEY RUN AGAINST THE CELEBRITY APPRENTICE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM SEEMED TO BE GOING IN, TRUMP WILL FLAME OUT. THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN QUICKLY. WE’LL BE BACK TO NORMAL. BUT HE DOESN’T SEEM TO BE EXTINGUISHED OR ANY TIME SOON NECESSARILY.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

HE’S HELD ON LONGER I THINK THAN PEOPLE THOUGHT. BUT IF YOU LOOK BACK IN 2011 AT THIS TIME, RICK PERRY WAS AT THE TOP. AND HE LASTED FOR A LITTLE WHILE AND THEN HE FLAMED OUT. THEN HERMAN CAIN WAS AT THE TOP FOR ABOUT A MONTH. AND THEN HE FLAMED OUT. AND THEN NEWT GINGRICH WAS AT THE TOP FOR A LITTLE MORE THAN A MONTH AND FLAMED OUT. NOW TRUMP’S BEEN AT THE TOP FOR A LITTLE BIT LONGER THAN A MONTH. SO HE’S LASTED LONGER THAN THESE CAIN KIND OF BUMPS THE LAST TIME DID. BUT HE ALSO STILL HASN’T YET SHOWN THAT HE CAN BUILD A PARTY ORGANIZATION. HE’S NEVER ACTUALLY FACED AN ELECTION DAY. SO IF HE STICKS IT OUT THROUGH THE IOWA CAUCUSES AND NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARIES, WE’LL START TO SEE HIM HAVE TO RUN AN ELECTION, WHERE ORGANIZING AND HAVING THE PARTY FAITHFUL TURN OUT FOR YOU ARE REALLY IMPORTANT. WE DON’T KNOW YET IF HE’S ANY GOOD AT THAT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SPECIFIC TO SCOTT WALKER, WHAT HAS TRUMP BEEN DOING TO HIM?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

WELL, IF YOU READ THE TEA LEAVES AND IF YOU BELIEVE WHAT SOME INSIDERS ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL ARE SAYING, IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE GOVERNOR HAS MOVED A LITTLE BIT FURTHER TO THE RIGHT ON SOME ISSUES THAN HE MAYBE HAD EITHER PLANNED TO OR THOUGHT HE WOULD TO TRY TO GET BACK SOME OF THE ATTENTION THAT DONALD TRUMP IS GETTING. AND THAT’S CAUSED MORE PROBLEMS FOR HIM THAN IT’S DONE WITH RESPECT TO HELPING HIM. SO HE’S HAD KIND OF A BAD MONTH OF STORIES ABOUT HIS POSITIONS ON IMMIGRATION. HIS STANDING IN THE POLLS. HIS PERFORMANCE IN THE DEBATE WASN’T POOR BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION BUT HE DIDN’T STAND OUT. AND TRUMP CERTAINLY DID. AND HE’S KIND OF GONE FROM BEING NUMBER TWO IN THE POLLS OR EVEN NUMBER ONE IN SOME PLACES DOWN TO MAYBE FOURTH PLACE OR IN A TIE WITH SENATOR CRUZ AND SENATOR RUBIO BEHIND JEB BUSH AND WAY BEHIND DONALD TRUMP. IT HASN’T BEEN A GREAT AUGUST. IT’S ALSO AUGUST AND PLENTY OF PEOPLE LIKE MITT ROMNEY WHO GOT HIS PARTY’S NOMINATION AND JOHN KERRY WHO GOT HIS IN 2004 HAVE HAD LOUSY AUGUSTS AND BOUNCED BACK.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WALKER HAS SLIPPED IN THE POLLS, AS YOU’VE SUGGESTED, IN OTHER STATES. BUT HE REMAINS STRONG IN THE LAST MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL HERE IN WISCONSIN, EVEN THOUGH I LISTENED TO TRUMP THE OTHER MIGHT NOT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT AT LL. BUT THE REPUBLICANS HERE IN THIS STATE ARE THE ONES WHO KNOW HIM BEST. DO YOU THINK THAT BODES ANYTHING FOR HIM GOING FORWARD IN THE ABSENCE OF TRUMP POTENTIALLY?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

I THINK IT GIVES HIM SOMETHING TO SAY WHEN HIS OPPONENTS SAY THAT HIS APPROVAL RATING IS DOWN TO 39% ACCORDING TO THE MARQUETTE LAW POLL. HE CAN SAY WELL THE REPUBLICANS IN MY STATE STILL SUPPORT ME. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLLSTERS, THEY ALSO ASKED WHO’S YOUR SECOND CHOICE. WHEN YOU ADD THOSE TWO TOGETHER, ABOUT THREE OUT OF FOUR REPUBLICANS IN WISCONSIN LIKE GOVERNOR WALKER. AND SO HE CAN AT LEAST COME BACK AND SAY THE PEOPLE WHO KNOW ME BEST LIKE ME. BUT WHEN YOU’RE RUNNING IN A GROUP OF 17 PEOPLE, IT’S REALLY HARD TO GET PEOPLE TO KNOW YOU BEST IN THAT WAY. HE’S NOT GOING TO HAVE THAT SAME KIND OF OPPORTUNITY AND WILL NEED TO FIND A WAY TO START TO STAND OUT

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WITH JUST ABOUT 30 SECONDS LEFT, THAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN THERE, ESPECIALLY IF BIDEN GETS IN?

MICHAEL WAGNER:

WELL I THINK BIDEN IS A VERY POPULAR NUMBER TWO CANDIDATE FOR PEOPLE BUT HE’S VERY FEW PEOPLE’S NUMBER ONE. HILLARY CLINTON IS STILL THE NUMBER ONE FOR MOST PEOPLE WHO ARE RUNNING. BERNIE SANDERS HAS CAPTURED AN ELEMENT OF THE LEFT PART OF THE PARTY. BUT IT SEEMS LIKE THIS IS STILL SENATOR CLINTON’S TO LOSE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

MICHAEL WAGNER. THANKS A LOT.

MICHAEL WAGNER:

MY PLEASURE.