Here & Now

Marquette Poll Director Discusses Latest Results

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO TONIGHT’S U.S. SENATE DEBATE PITTING CANDIDATES IN A NEWLY-TIGHTENING RACE ACCORDING TO THIS WEEK’S MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL. CHALLENGER RUSS FEINGOLD GETS THE BACKING OF 46% OF LIKELY VOTERS, WHILE 44% SUPPORT JOHNSON AND LIBERTARIAN PHIL ANDERSON GETS 4%. THIS IS THE SECOND-TO-LAST STATEWIDE POLL THE MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL WILL CONDUCT BEFORE ELECTION DAY. THE FINAL SURVEY WILL BE RELEASED THE WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION. CHARLES FRANKLIN IS THE DIRECTOR OF THE POLL. AND CHARLES THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GOOD TO BE HERE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WHAT ARE THE FACTORS IN YOUR MIND THAT HAVE RESULTED IN THE TIGHTENING OF THIS U.S. SENATE RACE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK THE PRIMARY THINGS ARE RON JOHNSON HAS CONSOLIDATED REPUBLICAN SUPPORT IN A WAY THAT DONALD TRUMP HAS NOT. JOHNSON’S GETTING 89% OF REPUBLICANS. FEINGOLD’S GETTING 90% OF DEMOCRATS. INDEPENDENTS ARE LEANING A LITTLE BIT TO FEINGOLD AT THIS POINT. THE OTHER THING IS OVER THE LAST THREE WEEKS WE DO SEE AN UPWARD MOMENT IN THE PERCENT THAT SAY JOHNSON CARES ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE THEM AND AN UPTICK IN HIS FAVORABILITY NUMBERS. AND FINALLY ABOUT 5% MORE OF THE PUBLIC SAY THEY KNOW ENOUGH TO HAVE AN OPINION ABOUT BOTH JOHNSON AND ABOUT FEINGOLD. WE’VE BEEN WAITING MONTHS FOR PEOPLE TO TUNE IN. THAT’S THE EVIDENCE THAT THEY ARE NOW TUNING IN.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S GO AHEAD AND LOOK AT SOME OF THOSE NUMBERS HAVING TO DO WITH CARES ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE ME. 45% DESCRIBE JOHNSON AS SOMEONE WHO CARES ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE ME, WHILE 52% DESCRIBE FEINGOLD AS CARING ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE THEM. AS YOU SAY, THESE NUMBERS HAVE GONE UP FOR BOTH CANDIDATES SINCE YOUR LAST SURVEY. AGAIN, IS THIS JUST A MATTER OF THEM GETTING OUT ON THE STUMP AND GETTING ON THE AIR MORE OR —

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THIS IS THE SORT OF RESULT THAT MAKES YOU BELIEVE THAT TV ADVERTISING REALLY WORKS, BECAUSE RON JOHNSON’S BEEN RUNNING A SERIES OF POSITIVE ADS ABOUT HIMSELF DURING THAT PERIOD THAT EMPHASIZES HIS EMPATHY FOR PEOPLE AND HIS WORKING FOR PEOPLE. AND WE SEE THE POLLS MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION. SO MAYBE IT’S THE ADVERTISING. I CAN’T PROVE IT, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

AS TO FAVORABILITY, 43% OF THOSE POLLED HAVE A FAVORABLE VIEW OF RON JOHNSON, WHILE 45% VIEW RUSS FEINGOLD FAVORABLY. THESE NUMBERS HAVE GONE UP FOR JOHNSON AND TICKED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR FEINGOLD. AGAIN, ADS?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

MAYBE. THERE ARE ALSO SOME NEGATIVE ADS AGAINST FEINGOLD IN THIS PERIOD AS WELL. WHAT IS STRIKING IS THAT WITH JOHNSON, HIS FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN WITHIN A POINT OR TWO OF EACH OTHER FOR MONTHS AND MONTHS. THIS IS THE FIRST MOMENT WHERE WE SEE HIS FAVORABLES GO UP, HIS UNFAVORABLES GO DOWN. WITH FEINGOLD, HIS FAVORABLES ARE MAYBE OFF A LITTLE BIT, BUT HIS UNFAVORABLES ARE UP TWO OR THREE POINTS. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A LITTLE BIT OF MOTION THERE AS WELL.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

I WANT TO GET TO THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND THERE ARE SOME REALLY INTERESTING RESULTS HERE. THIS WEEK’S POLL REALLY SHOWED HOW THE ACCESS HOLLYWOOD TAPE MADE PUBLIC LAST FRIDAY AFFECTED VOTERS’ ATTITUDES. AMONG LIKELY VOTERS FROM THURSDAY, BEFORE THE RELEASE OF THE TAPE, THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SOME MAJOR SHIFTS. THURSDAY, CLINTON WAS AT 40 AND TRUMP WAS AT 41. BY FRIDAY CLINTON WAS UP TO 44% AND TRUMP HAD SLIPPED TO 38. BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, CLINTON WAS AT 49% SUPPORT AND TRUMP HAD SLIPPED BACK TO 30%.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THERE’S REALLY STRIKING NUMBERS HOW BIG THOSE SHIFTS ARE. I’D PUT A COUPLE OF CAVEATS. WE FINISHED INTERVIEWING BEFORE THE DEBATE, SO THE DEBATE HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OUR NUMBERS. THE OTHER THING IS THAT WE HAPPENED TO CATCH THIS RELEASE OF THE TAPE AND ITS IMPACT AND POLITICAL REACTION TO IT UNDOUBTEDLY AT THE HIGH POINT. SO THIS IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST MOVEMENT YOU’D SEE. AS WE MOVE ON AND OTHER ISSUES START TO TAKE OVER, IT WILL PROBABLY COME BACK UP. BUT I THINK IT’S REVEALING THAT THIS WEEKEND HAD A VERY BIG IMPACT IN PERCEPTIONS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SPEAKING OF VERY BIG, LET’S LOOK AT THOSE NUMBERS AS THEY PERTAIN TO WOMEN LIKELY VOTERS. CLINTON STOOD AT 45% ON THURSDAY TO TRUMP’S 36%. FRIDAY CLINTON WAS AT 60% TO TRUMP’S 33%. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, CLINTON WAS AT 56% TO TRUMP’S 23%. HOW OFTEN DO POLLSTERS SEE THESE KINDS OF SHIFTS?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

YOU JUST VERY RARELY DO. PART OF IT IS THE COINCIDENCE OF BEING IN THE FIELD DOING A SURVEY AT EXACTLY THE RIGHT MOMENT. BUT OTHER IS THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS STORY, THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IT GOT AND THE NUMBER OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS AROUND THE COUNTRY THAT REACTED TO IT NEGATIVELY, IN MANY CASES WITHDRAWING THEIR SUPPORT. OTHER CASES MERELY CRITICIZING. ALL OF THAT IS THE PERFECT STORM TO HAVE A BIG IMPACT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALL RIGHT. WE NEED TO LEAVE IT THERE. CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR YOUR WORK.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.