Here & Now

Franklin Breaks Down Latest Marquette Poll

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

IN THE LATEST WISCONSIN POLLING OUT THIS WEEK, LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE GARY JOHNSON GETS 11% SUPPORT. AND ACCORDING TO THE MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL, THE RACE HAS TIGHTENED BETWEEN MAJOR PARTY CANDIDATES RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT AND U.S. SENATE. CHARLES FRANKLIN IS DIRECTOR OF THE POLL AND HE’S WITH US NOW. THANKS FOR BEING HERE CHARLES.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GOOD TO BE HERE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO A CLOSER READ OF THE NUMBERS LOOK LIKE THE LIBERTARIAN AND GREEN PARTY CANDIDATES ARE PULLING MORE SUPPORT FROM CLINTON THAN TRUMP. HOW SIGNIFICANT COULD THAT BE IF AT ALL IN NOVEMBER?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT COULD BE DEPENDING HOW IT HOLDS UP IN NOVEMBER. BUT RIGHT NOW THE MARGINS BETWEEN THE TOP TWO CANDIDATES, TRUMP AND CLINTON IS ABOUT THE SAME WHETHER YOU INCLUDE THE THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES OR NOT. SO AT THIS MOMENT IT DOESN’T LOOK LIKE IT AFFECTS WHO’S AHEAD VERY MUCH, BUT IT DOES AFFECT WHAT THE TOTAL VOTE IS BECAUSE THOSE VOTES COME DOWN WHEN YOU INCLUDE JOHNSON AND STEIN.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT HILLARY CLINTON AND DONALD TRUMP AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS IN YOUR POLL. 42% FOR CLINTON, 37% FOR DONALD TRUMP. AMONG LIKELY VOTERS, IT’S 45% CLINTON, 42% TRUMP. QUITE A NARROWING SINCE YOU’RE LAST POLL.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT’S VERY MUCH. AND WHAT IT REFLECTS IS THE CONVENTION BOUNCE WHICH WAS AT ITS HIGH POINT IN EARLY AUGUST, A WEEK AFTER THE CONVENTION AND AFTER, BY ALL ACCOUNTS, THE WORST WEEK OF THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN. NOW WE’VE HAD SOME TIME FOR THAT TO SUBSIDE. AND OUR NUMBERS NOW ARE BACK TO JUST ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE IN JULY BEFORE THE CONVENTION. SO AS SUBSTANTIAL AS THAT CONVENTION BOUNCE WAS, IT’S TURNED OUT NOW TO NOT BE ENDURING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE FALL. WE SEE THAT IN NATIONAL NUMBERS, TOO.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

I READ THAT NATIONALLY YOUR POLL NUMBERS FOR TRUMP ARE BEING REGARDED AS KIND OF THE SHOT IN THE ARM THAT HE NEEDS. AND YOU’RE SAYING IT DOES TRACK OTHER POLLS.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, WE’VE SEEN A TIGHTENING IN NATIONAL POLLING, FROM ABOUT AN EIGHT-POINT CLINTON LEAD IN EARLY AUGUST DOWN TO ABOUT A FIVE OR MAYBE A FOUR-POINT LEAD. SO IT’S SOME CONTRACTION. WE’RE AT FIVE POINTS WITH REGISTERED VOTERS AND THREE POINTS WITH LIKELY VOTERS. SO WE’RE RIGHT IN THAT BALLPARK.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S GO AHEAD AND TAKE A LOOK AT THE U.S. SENATE RACE. AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS, RUSS FEINGOLD 46%, RON JOHNSON, 42%. LIKELY VOTERS, IT’S 48% AND 45%. THIS ONE HAS ALSO NARROWED.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT HAS. WE SAW ESPECIALLY WITH LIKELY VOTERS THE SAME POST-CONVENTION BOUNCE FOR FEINGOLD THAT PUT HIM WELL AHEAD, 11 POINTS AHEAD EARLY IN THE MONTH. BUT THE MORE STABLE MEASURE IS THE REGISTERED VOTERS ‘CAUSE IT DOESN’T REFLECT TEMPORARY ENTHUSIASM. AND THERE THAT RACE HAS GONE FROM SEVEN POINTS IN JULY TO SIX IN EARLY AUGUST TO FOUR NOW. SO YOU CAN SEE SOME TIGHTENING IN THE RACE, WITH FEINGOLD CONSISTENTLY AHEAD, BUT WITH THE RACE NARROWING FROM MAYBE SORT OF THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT A QUESTION, “CARES ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE ME,” AND THIS IS BETWEEN CLINTON AND TRUMP. FOR CLINTON, YOUR POLLING SHOWS 40% SAYS CARES ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE ME DESCRIBES HER, 54% DOES NOT. FOR TRUMP, 31% DESCRIBES TRUMP. 65% DOES NOT. SO THE QUESTION IS WHO SPLITS FOR CLINTON IN THIS REGARD?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

YEAH. IT REFLECTS SOME OF THE EMPATHY FACTOR AND IT REFLECTS THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PERCEPTIONS OF THESE CANDIDATES. YOU KNOW, IF WE LOOK AT HONESTY, ACTUALLY TRUMP HAS A SMALL ADVANTAGE OVER CLINTON. IF WE LOOK AT QUALIFICATIONS FOR THE OFFICE, CLINTON HAS A LARGE ADVANTAGE OVER TRUMP. THIS QUESTION OF CARES IS SORT OF IN THE MIDDLE, WHERE CLINTON HAS A MODERATE ADVANTAGE. IT REFLECTS SOMETHING OF HER APPEALS AND MAYBE SOMETHING OF HER PERSONALITY AS WELL.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT THAT SAME QUESTION AS PERTAINS TO THE U.S. SENATE CANDIDATES. “CARES ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE ME” DESCRIBES RUSS FEINGOLD BY 46% OF THE RESPONDENTS, 36% NOT. 38%, JOHNSON, 38% DOES NOT. NOW, WHY WOULD MORE RESPONDENTS THINK FEINGOLD CARES MORE ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE THEM?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL AGAIN, WE’RE LOOKING AT SOMETHING OF A LONGTERM IMAGE BUT I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT SOME OF THE ADVERTISING, THE FEINGOLD ADVERTISING HAS EMPHASIZED VISITS TO 72 COUNTIES. THERE’S CONVERSATION AND EMPATHY, IF YOU WILL. SENATOR JOHNSON PROJECTS, VERY MUCH CONCERN ABOUT A PARTICULAR SET OF ISSUES, BUT THE WARM AND FUZZY GUY IS NOT SO MUCH CENTER TO HIS APPEAL. THAT IS A GREAT QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THE ISSUES THAT SENATOR JOHNSON IS FOCUSING ON MATTER VERSUS THE SORT OF STYLE OF CARES ABOUT YOU. WE’VE SEEN THAT ISSUE BE IMPORTANT IN THE PAST IN THE 2012 RACE, FOR EXAMPLE. BUT ISSUES ALSO MATTER. AND I THINK THE REST OF THE CAMPAIGN IS GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING QUESTION OF HOW THAT SHIFTS THROUGH ELECTION DAY.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SPEAKING OF ISSUES, WE TOOK A LOOK AT YOUR QUESTION THAT YOU ASKED IN YOUR POLL ABOUT IMMIGRATION, IMMIGRATION AND UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS. 62% SAID THAT UNDOCUMENTED WORKERS SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO STAY AND APPLY FOR CITIZENSHIP, 19% TOLD YOU THAT THEY THOUGHT THAT THESE PEOPLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY AS TEMPORARY WORKERS BUT NOT BE ABLE TO GAIN CITIZENSHIP. JUST 15% SAID THEY THOUGHT THEY SHOULD HAVE TO LEAVE THE UNITED STATES. COMING OFF DONALD TRUMP’S VISIT TO MEXICO THIS WEEK AND ANOTHER TOUGH SPEECH ON IMMIGRATION, HIS MESSAGE DOESN’T SEEM TO COMPORT WITH PEOPLE IN WISCONSIN AT LEAST WHO SEEM TO BE SOFTER ON IMMIGRATION.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THAT’S TRUE AND IT’S TRUE NATIONALLY AS WELL. NATIONAL POLLS CONSISTENTLY SHOW WELL OVER 50% FAVORING A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP. THAT PATH TO CITIZENSHIP IS ALSO UP TEN POINTS HERE FROM FOUR YEARS AGO. AND THE DEPORTATION OPTION IS DOWN ABOUT SIX POINTS. SO THERE’S BEEN SOME GRADUAL SHIFT IN THAT ISSUE. BUT EVEN AMONG TRUMP VOTERS, LESS THAN HALF FAVOR A DEPORTATION OPTION. BECAUSE WE FOCUS ON ELITES WHO ARE VERY INTENSE ABOUT THIS ISSUE, WE THINK THAT EVERY TRUMP SUPPORTER FAVORS DEPORTATION, BUT WHEN WE ASK WHAT’S THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM FACING THE COUNTRY, IMMIGRATION’S QUITE A WAYS DOWN. IT’S NOT REALLY ON THE TOP OF THE AGENDA AS WE CAN SEE EVEN OF TRUMP VOTERS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WE NEED TO GET TO OUR FINAL SCREEN BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING THIS ALONG WITH YOUR POLLING. SCOTT WALKER’S APPROVAL RATINGS, 43% NOW APPROVE, 49% DISAPPROVE. WHAT’S THIS UP TREND ATTRIBUTED TO?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL, IT’S A BLIP UP. WE’LL SEE IF IT MAINTAINS ITSELF. HE BUMPED UP TO 43% IN MARCH ONLY TO THEN FALL BACK DOWN. SO WE’LL SEE IF HE MAINTAINS THIS BUMP. THIS IS, THOUGH, THE FIRST TIME HE’S BELOW 50% DISAPPROVAL SINCE OCTOBER OF 2014. BUT TIME WILL TELL IN THE NEXT SURVEY WHETHER THIS MAINTAINS ITSELF OR NOT.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALL RIGHT. CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANKS VERY MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.