Here & Now

Clinton Keeps Lead Over Trump In New Marquette Poll

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

WITH THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION STARTING MONDAY IN CLEVELAND, HOW DO THE CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT AND FOR U.S. SENATE STACK UP IN WISCONSIN? WE CHECK IN NOW WITH DIRECTOR OF THE MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL, CHARLES FRANKLIN. CHARLES, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GREAT TO BE BACK.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

SO LEADING INTO CLEVELAND, TWO THINGS. THE NEVER TRUMP TENT FOLDED UP UNDER CONVENTION RULES AND DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCES MIKE PENCE AS VP. IT SEEMS LIKE ANY ANTICIPATED FIREWORKS WITH THE CONVENTION ARE ALL BUT OFF THE TABLE. WOULD YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT CERTAINLY LOOKS THAT WAY FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF THE RULES COMMITTEE WHERE WE THOUGHT THERE MIGHT BE FIREWORKS. I WOULD IMAGINE THAT THIS IS PRETTY MUCH THE END OF A FLOOR MOVEMENT FOR ANYONE ELSE.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

STILL IN WISCONSIN IN YOUR VERY RECENT POLL VOTERS ARE ANYTHING BUT IN FULL ACCORD WITH THE NOMINEES. LET’S JUMP TO A POLL QUESTION THAT ACTUALLY WAS DEEPER IN YOUR SURVEY FIRST TONIGHT. ACCORDING TO YOUR STATEWIDE POLLING, LATE LAST WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AMONG REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, 59% SAY THE REPUBLICAN CONVENTION SHOULD NOMINATE TRUMP, WHILE 39% SAY THEY’D LIKE TO SEE THE REPUBLICAN TO NOMINATE SOMEONE ELSE OTHER THAN TRUMP. BUT EVEN IN WISCONSIN, WHICH VOTED FOR CRUZ, DOES THAT 39% STAND OUT?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT DOES. I THINK THE GOOD NEWS FOR TRUMP HE’S UP TO 59. HE’S AT A SOLID MAJORITY NOW OF REPUBLICANS IN THE STATE WHO WANT HIM WHEN HE DID LOSE THE PRIMARY HERE. SO THAT IS THE GOOD NEWS. THE PROBLEM IS OF THAT 39%, ONLY BETWEEN 41% AND 48% DEPENDING ON THE WAY YOU ASK THE QUESTION ARE SUPPORTING TRUMP AT THIS POINT. VERY FEW ARE GOING TO HILLARY CLINTON. THAT’S TRUE. BUT THEY MAY BE SUPPORTING THE LIBERTARIAN OR MORE COMMONLY THEY’RE SAYING I DON’T KNOW, I DON’T WANT ANY OF THESE, I MAY NOT VOTE. THAT’S WHERE THE CONVENTION COULD BRING THESE PEOPLE HOME TO TRUMP AND HELP UNIFY THE PARTY OR A CONVENTION THAT FAILS TO DO THAT LEAVES 39% OF THE ELECTORATE HERE STILL NOT RECONCILED TO HIM.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE AISLE. AMONG DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN DEMOCRATIC, 50% SAY THEY PREFER CLINTON TO BE THE PARTY’S NOMINEE, WHILE 47% PREFER SANDERS. AGAIN, EVEN IN A STATE THAT WENT FOR SANDERS, WHAT DOES THIS SHOW CONCERNING PARTY UNITY?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT’S A LITTLE BIT OF THE SAME STORY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME MORE PEOPLE SAID THEY PREFER CLINTON TO SANDERS SINCE THE MARCH POLL AND THE APRIL PRIMARY. SO AGAIN IT’S A BIT OF PROGRESS FOR CLINTON. BUT AMONG THOSE SANDERS’ VOTERS, CLINTON IS GETTING ABOUT 68% OF THE VOTE. SO JUST AS TRUMP IS NOT GETTING THE NEVER TRUMP FOLKS, CLINTON HAS NOT YET CLINCHED THE SANDERS FOLKS UP TO THE 85% TO 90% THAT WE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FROM DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S LOOK AT THE NUMBERS FOR CLINTON AND TRUMP IN WISCONSIN. AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS, HILLARY CLINTON IS UP ON DONALD TRUMP 43% TO 37%. AMONG LIKELY VOTERS IT’S CLINTON 45% TO TRUMP 41%. WHICH ARE WE GOING WITH?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

YOU KNOW, EITHER TELLS YOU SOMETHING. IS IT A SIX-POINT MARGIN WITH REGISTERED VOTERS OR FOUR-POINT WITH LIKELY VOTERS? FIRST OF ALL, IT’S JUST A TWO-POINT DIFFERENCE. IF YOU JUST SAY IT’S IN THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS RIGHT NOW, YOU’D BE JUST RIGHT ABOUT WHERE THE RACE STANDS. WITH LIKELY VOTERS, THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE SURE THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE IN NOVEMBER. THE PROBLEM IS THEY CAN CHANGE THEIR MIND. WE’VE SEEN FLUCTUATIONS IN LIKELY VOTERS BETWEEN MARCH TO JUNE AND THEN WE SAW MORE FLUCTUATION FROM JUNE TO JULY. SO I LIKE THE REGISTERED VOTER NUMBER BECAUSE IT’S A LITTLE MORE STABLE RIGHT NOW. WHEN WE GET INTO SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, VOTERS WILL HAVE A FIRMER OPINION ABOUT WHETHER THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE AND AT THAT POINT I’D PAY MORE ATTENTION TO THE LIKELY VOTER NUMBER.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALL RIGHT. LET’S LOOK AT THE U.S. SENATE RACE. DEMOCRAT RUSS FEINGOLD REMAINS ON TOP IN YOUR POLLING. AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS HE HAS 48% TO REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT RON JOHNSON, 41%. AMONG LIKELY VOTERS, IT’S FEINGOLD 49% TO JOHNSON 44%. AND DOES THIS HOLD THE SAME AS WHAT YOU JUST TOLD US ABOUT —

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

EXACTLY. EVEN THE SAME DIFFERENCE. A SEVEN VERSUS A FIVE-POINT LEAD. IT’S A TWO-POINT DIFFERENCE. HERE AND THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE, IN 2015 AND EARLY ’16 WE SAW THE DEMOCRATS LEADING BY ABOUT 10 OR 11 POINTS IN BOTH THE PRESIDENTIAL AND SENATE RACE. FROM MARCH THROUGH JUNE TO JULY WE’VE SEEN THAT TIGHTEN TO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS. AND I THINK THAT REPRESENTS A GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF BOTH RACES TIGHTENING A BIT, BUT BOTH CONTINUE TO SHOW A MODERATE OR MODEST ADVANTAGE FOR THE DEMOCRATS AT THIS POINT IN THE CAMPAIGN.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT YOU FOUND ABOUT FAVORABILITY IN THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES. TRUMP IS VIEWED UNFAVORABLY BY 63%, CLINTON BY 58%. BIG NUMBERS.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THOSE ARE JUST ENORMOUS NUMBERS. HISTORICALLY THEY’RE ENORMOUS, SINCE THE 1970s WHEN THIS QUESTION WAS FIRST ASKED DURING THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION. NO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HAS BEEN VIEWED THIS NEGATIVELY, LET ALONE THE NOMINEES OF BOTH PARTIES. SO THIS IS REALLY STRIKING. HOWEVER I HAVE TO SAY IT’S PARTLY BECAUSE OF POLARIZATION. JUST 3% OF DEMOCRATS HAVE A POSITIVE VIEW OF TRUMP, 93% A NEGATIVE VIEW. AMONG REPUBLICANS, 1% FAVORABLE TO CLINTON, 98% UNFAVORABLE TO CLINTON. THOSE ENORMOUS GAPS ARE ALSO PULLING DOWN THEIR OVERALL NUMBERS, THOUGH BOTH OF THEM ARE NET FAVORABLE AND CLINTON QUITE FAVORABLE WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

I WANT TO JUMP TO OUR LAST SCREEN THAT WE HAVE, ACTUALLY, AND THAT HAS TO DO WITH GOVERNOR WALKER’S APPROVAL RATING. IT NOW STANDS AT 38%, DISAPPROVAL AT 58%. SO THAT’S SLIPPED JUST A LITTLE BIT.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

JUST A LITTLE BIT SINCE JUNE. HE WAS UP AT 43% IN MARCH. BUT THE 43% IN MARCH COINCIDED WITH THE RUN UP TO THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY. HE WAS OUT CAMPAIGNING AND INDEED CAMPAIGNING FOR THE WINNER. AND WE SAW IT MOVE UP. AND THE QUESTION THEN WAS WOULD IT STAY UP OR WOULD IT COME BACK DOWN. NOW WE HAVE TWO POLLS, 39% AND NOW 38%. I THINK THE POINT HERE IS AFTER BEING CONSISTENTLY BEING AT 49% OR 50% APPROVAL IN 2013 AND 2014, BEGINNING IN 2015 AND CONTINUING NOW HE’S FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30s AND HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN 36% AND 39%, WITH THAT ONE EXCEPTION OF THIS MARCH. CLEARLY THERE HAS NOT BEEN A REAL RECONSIDERATION OF THE GOVERNOR SINCE HE STARTED RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT AND SINCE HE DELIVERED A BUDGET TWO YEARS AGO NOW THAT WAS WIDELY CRITICIZED WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY. THERE’S PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE, BUT IT IS A LONG STRETCH TO BE MIRED BELOW 40% IN ALL BUT THAT ONE MARCH POLL.

FREDERICA FREYBERG:

ALL RIGHT. WE LEAVE IT THERE. CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANKS VERY MUCH.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.