Here & Now

Trump's Support Lies Outside Usual GOP Strongholds In State

ZAC SCHULTZ:

THE REMAINING CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT HAVE ANNOUNCED THEY WILL BE CAMPAIGNING IN WISCONSIN IN THE NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE REPUBLICAN FRONT-RUNNER, DONALD TRUMP. IN RECENT MONTHS, SO-CALLED ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO STOP TRUMP, BUT HE SAYS THAT DOESN’T WORK BECAUSE MUCH OF HIS SUPPORT COMES FROM NEW GOP VOTERS. THOSE WHO AREN’T PART OF THE ESTABLISHMENT. AND THERE’S EVIDENCE HE MAY BE RIGHT. MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL POLITICAL REPORTER CRAIG GILBERT HAS MAPPED WHERE TRUMP’S BEST SUPPORT MAY COME IN WISCONSIN AND HE JOINS US NOW FROM WASHINGTON. THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

CRAIG GILBERT:

NICE TO BE WITH YOU.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW, THE DIVIDE BETWEEN DONALD TRUMP SUPPORTERS AND THE REPUBLICANS THAT DON’T LIKE HIM IS HUGE, BUT YOU HAVE A MAP THAT SHOWS THE DIVIDE ISN’T JUST IDEOLOGICAL, IT’S GEOGRAPHICAL AS WELL.

CRAIG GILBERT:

YEAH. I MEAN, THERE’S A LOT OF DIFFERENT FAULT LINES HERE. IT’S PARTLY DEMOGRAPHIC. TRUMP DOES BETTER WITH LESS EDUCATED AND LOWER INCOME REPUBLICANS. HE DOES BETTER IN RURAL AREAS. BOTH PLAY INTO THIS MAP. IT’S REALLY AMAZING TO ME TO SEE WITHIN THE SAME PARTY AND OVER THE PARTY’S PRESIDENTIAL FRONT-RUNNER THESE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCES BY REGION. SO HE’S — TRUMP IS EFFECTIVELY, YOU KNOW, IN POSITIVE TERRITORY IN TERMS OF HIS IMAGE AMONG REPUBLICANS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE, FROM TEN TO 20 POINTS POSITIVE. AND THEN HE’S IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, WHERE HE’S NEGATIVE 30 OR 40 IN THE MOST IMPORTANT REPUBLICAN COUNTIES IN THE STATE. HE’S MOST UNPOPULAR IN THE REDDEST PART OF WISCONSIN, WHICH IS PRETTY AMAZING FOR A REPUBICAN PRESIDENTIAL FRONT RUNNER.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

YOU POINT OUT THAT WE’VE SEEN THIS GEOGRAPHIC DIVIDE IN PAST REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES, BUT IN THOSE CASES REPUBLICANS IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN HAVE PREVAILED IN THOSE PRIMARY ELECTIONS. WHY IS IT DIFFERENT IN THIS CASE?

CRAIG GILBERT:

WELL, IT MAY NOT BE DIFFERENT. I MEAN, IT MAY BE THAT TRUMP GOES ON TO LOSE THE WISCONSIN PRIMARY. BUT THIS WILL BE A GOOD TEST OF HOW MUCH — WHETHER THAT MAP — THOSE OLD MAPS ARE A GOOD GUIDE TO THE NEW MAP. I MEAN, SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IS UNQUESTIONABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE STATE IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES AND THAT WAS A BIG REASON WHY MITT ROMNEY WON THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY HERE IN 2012. AND JOHN MCCAIN WON IN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY IN 2008, EVEN THOUGH THEIR OPPONENTS DID VERY WELL IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. WE SAW THE SAME THING WHEN GOVERNOR WALKER WON HIS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN THE FALL OF 2010 AGAINST MARK NEUMANN. MARK NEUMANN BEAT HIM IN MOST OF THE STATE, BUT GOT DESTROYED BY GOVERNOR WALKER IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS A TEST OF WHETHER DONALD TRUMP CAN COME IN AND REWRITE THE REPUBLICAN MAP AND KIND OF SURVIVE HIS WEAKNESS IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND REALLY TURN OUT VOTERS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. AND IF HE CAN BUILD UP BIG ENOUGH MARGINS AND IF THE TURNOUT, WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO BE HIGH, IS SUPER HIGH, THAT COULD CHANGE THE WHOLE DYNAMICS IN A RACE LIKE THIS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WE’VE HEARD A LOT ABOUT THE POWER OF TALK RADIO — CONSERVATIVE TALK RADIO — ESPECIALLY IN THE MILWAUKEE MARKET IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. IS THAT A BIG FACTOR IN THE FAVORABILITY OF DONALD TRUMP?

CRAIG GILBERT:

I THINK IT IS. I MEAN, I THINK EVERYBODY WHO FOLLOWS POLITICS IN WISCONSIN WOULD AGREE THAT CONSERVATIVE TALK RADIO IS A MAJOR PLAYER IN REPUBLICAN POLITICS, HAS A BIG IMPACT, PARTICULARLY ON REPUBLICAN VOTERS IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN. I DON’T THINK IT’S — I THINK IT’S FAR FROM THE ONLY EXPLANATION BECAUSE DEMOGRAPHICS HELP EXPLAIN THIS DIFFERENCE. I MEAN, SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN IS THE WEALTHIEST PART OF THE STATE AND IT’S ALSO GOT SOME OF THE HIGHEST RATES OF COLLEGE EDUCATION. SO IT SORT OF MAKES SENSE THAT DONALD TRUMP WOULD BE DOING WORSE THERE. BUT TALK RADIO HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY AND FOR A LONG TIME IN OPPOSITION TO DONALD TRUMP, UNLIKE CONSERVATIVE TALK RADIO IN SOME OTHER PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. AND NOW I THINK THEY’RE ALSO KIND OF CAMPAIGNING FOR ANTI-TRUMP REPUBLICANS TO GET BEHIND TED CRUZ IN PARTICULAR. AND THAT SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF HAVING AN IMPACT ON THIS RACE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

SO ARE THE TRUMP SUPPORTERS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN JUST NOT GETTING THE ESTABLISHMENT MESSAGE BECAUSE THEY DON’T HAVE THAT TALK RADIO IN THEIR EAR? OR ARE THEY LESS RECEPTIVE TO THAT MESSAGE OVERALL?

CRAIG GILBERT:

WELL, I THINK IT’S A COMBINATION OF THINGS. I THINK THEY ARE IN SOME WAYS LESS PARTISAN. SO THEY’RE NOT AS MINDFUL OR CONCERNED ABOUT WHAT PARTY LEADERS SAY OR EVEN WHAT TALK RADIO HOSTS SAY. AND OBVIOUSLY DONALD TRUMP IS TAPPING INTO A NEW SOURCE OF VOTERS IN THESE REPUBLICAN RACES. PEOPLE THAT HAVEN’T ALWAYS VOTED IN REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES BEFORE. AND SO THAT’S HELPING HIM IN THESE OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE. IT MAY ALSO HELP HIM THAT THE STATE HAS AN OPEN PRIMARY AND HAS ELECTION DAY REGISTRATION. THE BARRIERS TO NONTRADITIONAL VOTERS ARE REALLY LOW, SO IF THERE IS A BIG TURNOUT, THAT COULD MITIGATE SOME OF THE PROBLEMS DONALD TRUMP IS RUNNING INTO IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STATE AND WITH OTHER PARTS OF THE PARTY. BUT I THINK WISCONSIN’S GOING TO BE A REALLY GREAT TEST OF WHETHER DONALD TRUMP CAN SORT OF WIN THIS STATE IN A VERY UNCONVENTIONAL WAY.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NATIONAL REPUBLICANS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN SAYING THAT TRUMP IS SIMPLY A CREATION OF THE MEDIA, THAT MEDIA IS GIVING HIM SO MUCH ATTENTION THAT THAT’S WHY HE’S WINNING. BUT THE MEDIA CAN’T BE MORE PRESENT IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAN IT IS IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN, SO DOES THAT LINE MAKE SENSE IN THIS MAP?

CRAIG GILBERT:

NO. I THINK WE’RE SEEING ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WE’RE SEEING ALL THESE CANDIDATES, NOT JUST DONALD TRUMP, HAVE CORE STRENGTHS AND CORE WEAKNESSES. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, HILLARY CLINTON APPEALS TO CERTAIN KINDS OF DEMOCRATS AND BERNIE SANDERS APPEALS TO OTHER KINDS OF DEMOCRATS. AND DONALD TRUMP IN OTHER STATES, WE’VE SEEN HE’S CONSISTENTLY DONE BETTER WITH CERTAIN KINDS OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS. HE’S DONE BETTER WITH MEN. IN EVERY STATE WE HAVE EXIT POLLS HE’S DONE BETTER WITH NONCOLLEGE WHITE VOTERS THAN COLLEGE-EDUCATED WHITE VOTERS. HE’S DONE BETTER WITH DOWNSCALE WHITE VOTERS IN TERMS OF INCOME. HIS SUPPORT ISN’T LIMITED TO THESE GROUPS, BECAUSE IN A LOT OF STATES HE’S HAD VERY BROAD SUPPORT. HE’S GOTTEN SUPPORT FROM PEOPLE ACROSS INCOME LEVELS AND EDUCATION LEVELS. BUT HIS CORE SUPPORT ARE THESE BLUE COLLAR VOTERS IN MANY CASES IN COMMUNITIES THAT ARE STRUGGLING ECONOMICALLY. AND YOU CAN MAP THIS IN WISCONSIN AND OTHER PLACES, WHERE HE DOES BETTER IN PLACES THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT, THAT HAVE LOST INDUSTRIAL JOBS, FOR EXAMPLE, AND HE DOES WORSE IN MANY STATES IN MORE PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIES.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

ALL RIGHT. WE’LL LEAVE IT THERE. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR TIME TODAY.

CRAIG GILBERT:

NICE TO BE WITH YOU.