Here & Now

Closer Look: Franklin On Latest Marquette Law School Poll

Zac Schultz:

So what do Wisconsin voters think about the health care debate? Let’s find out in our “Closer Look” at results from the latest Marquette Law School Poll. And joining us now is the director of the poll, Charles Franklin. Thanks for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Thanks for having me.

Zac Schultz:

You asked what people wanted Congress to do about Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act and most don’t want it to go away.

Charles Franklin:

That’s right. If you put it together about 60% would either keep it or keep it and improve it, and about 36% would either repeal it or repeal and replace it. We’ve seen similar kinds of numbers in the past, though support for Obamacare in general has moved up a little bit since the new administration took office.

Zac Schultz:

And is that–is it possible to know if that’s because there’s actually a realistic threat to it now?

Charles Franklin:

I think the threat is one thing. We’ve seen the Affordable Care Act was more unfavorable than favorable throughout its life until this new year. What’s different? There’s now a realistic threat of repeal. The other is, as we saw in our data, people are a bit fearful what a replacement would look like. They’re concerned that it would cover fewer people and that it would cost more, the opposite of what President Trump talked about on the campaign of covering more people for much less money.

Zac Schultz:

And we’ve got some numbers on that. The Congressional Budget Office put out numbers that said it will lead to 24 million people losing insurance over time. But less than half of the voters believe that. Is that lack of trust in government or is that a quiz on whether the people are paying attention?

Charles Franklin:

I think it’s a little bit of both. More of a quiz at this point because the bill is uncertain. It’s being changed constantly. We don’t even know what’s going to happen with the vote. Or at least I don’t at this point. So, I think it reflects that uncertainty but it also is worth looking that close to 2 to 1 margin who think something worse will happen compared to think something better will happen. That’s a real imbalance. It reflects the CBO numbers. It also reflects the political debate around the bill.

Zac Schultz:

And we do have the first approval ratings for the Trump era in Wisconsin. How’s he doing?

Charles Franklin:

41% approval, 47 disapprove. A little higher than national average, 11% haven’t made up their minds. As a result, his 41 approval is maybe a point below the national average right now, but disapproval numbers are about 3 or 4 points below the national average. That’s because we are not quite as opinionated about him yet as the national polling looks.

Zac Schultz:

But when we look at the party breakdown, it’s pretty clear.

Charles Franklin:

Oh, the party breakdown is night and day. That is like the middle of the Obama administration. High 80% of Republicans approve of Trump, high 80% of Democrats disapprove. Independents are a bit split. A little bit more disapproval than approval. Normally a honeymoon takes place and the opposition party at least holds off on being very negative. That has not happened now. The other thing is, Republicans were a bit split in the state in the fall about how they felt about Trump. They are now completely unified behind him at nearly 90%.

Zac Schultz:

Maybe the honeymoon’s within the Republican Party which he had to earn.

Charles Franklin:

I think the party has come home to him and rallied around him. We’ll see. For President Obama, he stayed in the low to mid 80s almost always with Democrats. We’ll see if that happens with Trump.

Zac Schultz:

And moving to the state, Governor Walker continues his slow climb towards almost a positive rating.

Charles Franklin:

We see his best rating in the last two years, 45 to 48, 45 approve, 48 disapprove. So, he’s still a little underwater by a three point margin, but that’s a three point uptick in his approval, three points down on his disapproval. We’ve watched him of course for his entire term, but especially since the beginning of 2015 he’s been substantially more disapproval than approval. This is closing the gap. He closed some over last summer but now he’s closed a little bit more. This comes in the wake of a generally positive budget that he submitted.

Zac Schultz:

And talking about that budget, one of the big issues is always going to be public education and funding for it. He’s proposed a big increase. And it looks like people support that idea.

Charles Franklin:

People overwhelming do by 80%, support more funding for K-12 education. This is the mirror image of two years ago in that budget where initially cuts to K-12 were proposed, which were enormously unpopular with the public and also ultimately with legislators.

Zac Schultz:

And so it makes sense that at the same time people want more funding, that shows they do like the local schools.

Charles Franklin:

Generally we’ve tracked this all along and a substantial majority are either very satisfied or satisfied with their public schools. It’s a very modest minority who are negative about those schools, though it is fair to recognize more people are in just the satisfied category by about 2 to 1, than are in the very satisfied category. So, it’s not like people are saying their schools are perfect, but on balance, they’re quite positive to it, and except in the Milwaukee area, where it’s–the biggest negativity, most of the state is quite positive to their local public schools.

Zac Schultz:

And very quickly, seems to be a trend that has been relatively consistent over time.

Charles Franklin:

That's right. We have not seen a shift in the balance of that to any appreciable degree in the four years, five years that we have been doing the Marquette poll.

Zac Schultz:

All right. Charles Franklin, thanks for your time.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.