Here & Now

Charles Franklin Explains Most Recent Marquette Poll

ZAC SCHULTZ:

BUT FIRST, THE NEW MARQUETTE UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL POLL SHOWS GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER’S JOB APPROVAL NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN EVER IN WISCONSIN. AND HERE TO GO OVER THOSE NUMBERS IS POLL DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN. THANKS FOR BEING HERE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

GOOD TO BE HERE.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW THE NUMBERS EVERYONE WANTED TO SEE COMING OUT OF THIS ARE GOVERNOR WALKER’S JOB APPROVAL RATINGS ESPECIALLY FROM AUGUST TO SEPTEMBER AFTER HE DROPPED OUT.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THAT’S RIGHT. AND HE’S AT 37% APPROVAL, 59% DISAPPROVAL. THAT’S DOWN FROM A 39% A MONTH AGO. FROM A 41% IN APRIL, AND FROM A 49/47 NET POSITIVE JUST BEFORE THE RE-ELECTION.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WOULD THAT BE CONSIDERED A HUGE DROP IN THAT TIME SPAN?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT’S QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL DROP. IN THE TIME THAT MARQUETTE HAS BEEN POLLING FOR THE FOUR YEARS FROM 2012 TO THE PRESENT. WE HAD NEVER SEEN HIM BELOW 46 IN ALL OF THAT TIME. AND NOW HE’S HAD A 41, A 39 AND A 37. ALSO THE 37 IS AS LOW AS HE’S EVER BEEN IN ANY PUBLIC POLLING, INCLUDING THE POLLS DONE IN 2011 BEFORE WE BEGAN POLLING.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

HOW DOES HE COMPARE TO PAST GOVERNORS? GOVERNOR JIM DOYLE WASN’T DOING TOO WELL AT THE END OF HIS TERM.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

NO. TOWARDS THE END, JIM DOYLE WAS DOWN IN THE 30S. I THINK A LITTLE LOWER IN THE 30S. TOMMY THOMPSON, BY CONTRAST, I THINK NEVER FELL MUCH BELOW THE 60S.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW THE DROP IN GOVERNOR WALKER’S APPROVAL RATING CAME LARGELY FROM INDEPENDENTS. THEY’RE DOWN 20% FROM OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR, RIGHT BEFORE THE ELECTION AT THIS TIME, AND FROM REPUBLICANS. CAN WE READ INTO ANYTHING IN THERE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

I THINK IT’S ACTUALLY VERY IMPORTANT. PART OF THE STORY IS DEMOCRATS WERE ALREADY AT 10% OR SO. SO THERE’S SIMPLY NO MUCH FURTHER THE DEMOCRATS COULD COME DOWN. SO IF YOU SEE THE OVERALL NUMBERS COME DOWN AS WE HAVE, IT MUST BE COMING FROM REPUBLICANS AND INDEPENDENTS. AND WE HAVE SEEN A SUBSTANTIAL DROP. I THINK PART OF THE STORY THERE IS REALLY THE DOUBLE WHAMMY, IF YOU WILL, OF THE BUDGET IN THE SPRING THAT WAS CRITICIZED BY REPUBLICAN LEGISLATORS. SO THE CRITICISM WAS COMING WITHIN THE PARTY, NOT JUST FROM THE OTHER PARTY. AND THE SECOND, OF COURSE, WAS THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN AND ALL THE RAMIFICATIONS OF THAT INCLUDING BEING OUT OF STATE A LOT, NOT BEING HERE TO DEFEND THE BUDGET OR BEING VERY ACTIVE IN THE PROCESS. AND VOTERS’ PERCEPTIONS OF THE GOVERNOR CHANGED AS PART OF THAT, INCLUDING SEEING HIM AS NOT CARING ABOUT PEOPLE LIKE YOU, WHICH IS ALSO DOWN AT 35% IN THIS LATEST POLL.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

ANOTHER INTERESTING SHIFT IS IN HOW THE PEOPLE VIEW THE GOVERNOR POLITICALLY AND THE NUMBER THAT VIEW HIM AS MODERATE TO CONSERVATIVE HAS GONE DOWN, WHILE VERY CONSERVATIVE SHOT UP.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT IS. THAT’S ACTUALLY, AGAIN, A VERY INTERESTING CHANGE IN PERCEPTIONS. WE ASKED ABOUT WHERE WOULD YOU PLACE THE GOVERNOR ON THIS SCALE. AND IN 2014, ONLY CONSERVATIVE WAS THE LARGEST SINGLE GROUP AT 42%. AND CONSERVATIVE WAS HIGH, BUT IT WAS BELOW THAT. NOW THOSE HAVE REVERSED WITH VERY CONSERVATIVE THE BIGGEST GROUP. CONSERVATIVE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. AND THOSE SEEING HIM AS MODERATE WENT DOWN BY 3 PERCENTAGE POINTS AS WELL.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

AND THAT BRINGS US TO THE QUESTION OF A THIRD TERM FOR GOVERNOR WALKER.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

AND HERE THE NEWS IS ALSO FAIRLY NEGATIVE. ONLY 35% SUPPORT A THIRD TERM, 60% OPPOSE, 62% ACTUALLY OPPOSE IT. AND SO YOU KNOW, THIS IS NOT TO SAY THESE NUMBERS CAN’T CHANGE. THE GOVERNOR’S APPROVAL WAS DOWN IN THE LOW 40S OR EVEN OCCASIONALLY THE 30S IN 2011. BUT HE REBUILT SUPPORT INTO THE RECALL AND THEN INTO THE RE-ELECTION AND HAS MAINTAINED A MODEST NET APPROVAL RATING THROUGH MOST OF THAT PERIOD. BUT HAVING GONE DOWN THE SECOND TIME AND ESPECIALLY LOSING SUPPORT WITHIN HIS PARTY AND INDEPENDENTS, IT’S PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A CHALLENGE TO REBUILD IT. ON HIS SIDE, YOU’VE GOT 3-PLUS YEARS TO WORK ON THAT.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

NOW WITH GOVENOR WALKER DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE, IT DOES CHANGE THE GOP NOMINATION IN WISCONSIN WITH DONALD TRUMP THE BIG WINNER.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

IT IS AND A LITTLE IRONY IN THAT. GOVERNOR WALKER WAS GETTING 25% BEFORE HE DROPPED OUT. WITH HIM OUT, TRUMP BUMPS UP FROM 9 ALL THE WAY TO 20 IN FIRST PLACE WITH BEN CARSON SECOND, FOLLOWED BY RUBIO AND FIORINA AND THE REST BELOW 10%. SO THAT’S A BIG POP FOR TRUMP AND THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT AMONG WALKER VOTERS WHO WOULD HAVE CONTINUED TO SUPPORT HIM, TRUMP ACTUALLY DOES SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 22%. SO THAT’S I THINK EVIDENCE THAT THE WALKER SUPPORTERS ARE NOT INFLUENCED BY HIM SAYING SOMEONE SHOULD TAKE ON THE FRONT RUNNER, BUT RATHER WENT TO TRUMP AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE LEVELS.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE, HILLARY CLINTON IS STILL AHEAD. BUT JOE BIDEN’S DOING WELL DESPITE NOT BEING A CANDIDATE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

CLINTON AND SANDERS MAINTAINED THEIR RELATIVE STANDINGS, ABOUT 12-POINT ADVANTAGE FOR CLINTON. BUT JOE BIDEN BUMPED UP BY 5 POINTS FROM 12 TO 17. SO HE’S STILL CLEARLY THIRD PLACE BUT IT ALSO TURNS OUT BIDEN IS MORE LIKELY TO BE THE SECOND CHOICE OF DEMOCRATS. SO IF BIDEN SHOULD GET IN THE RACE, THIS COULD BE DYNAMIC.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

LOOKING AT THE U.S. SENATE RACE THAT WE’VE GOT COMING UP NEXT FALL, WE KNOW WHO THE CANDIDATES ARE THERE. AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT RACE.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

A LOT OF BOUNCING AROUND. THIS WAS A 14-POINT FEINGOLD LEAD. THIS TIME IT WAS ONLY A FIVE-POINT LEAD THE LAST TIME BUT IT HAD BEEN EVEN BIGGER I THINK IT WAS 16 BACK IN APRIL. I THINK ONE POINT TO MAKE IS, ONLY 55% HAVE AN OPINION ABOUT BOTH CANDIDATES. 19% SAY THEY DON’T RECOGNIZE EITHER CANDIDATE. SO THAT’S A RECIPE FOR A LOT OF VOLATILITY. ALTERNATIVELY, IF YOU JUST LOOK AT THE THREE POLLS, FEINGOLD AVERAGES ABOUT 50, JOHNSON AVERAGES ABOUT 40, AND THE BOUNCING AROUND IS WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR ACROSS THOSE THREE POLLS. SO IF I WERE BETTING, I’D BET THAT THERE’S REALLY NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE THERE BUT A LOT OF VOTERS HAVEN’T TUNED IN YET.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

WE’VE GOT ABOUT A MINUTE LEFT. RUSS FEINGOLD’S A THREE-TERM INCUMBENT. RON JOHNSON’S THE CURRENT INCUMBENT. HOW CAN PEOPLE NOT KNOW WHO THESE PEOPLE ARE?

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

WELL 26% SAY THEY CAN’T RATE RUSS FEINGOLD. 37% CAN’T RATE RON JOHNSON. I THINK THOSE OF US THAT PAY SO MUCH ATTENTION TO POLITICS HAVE A HARD TIME REALIZING THAT FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE, THIS IS REALLY NOT THE TOP OF THEIR AGENDA. MAYBE THE PACKERS ARE WORTH PAYING MORE ATTENTION TO. THIS WILL SURELY CHANGE AS WE GET INTO THE CAMPAIGN. WE ARE A LONG WAY OUT. THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE ESPECIALLY WITH GOVERNOR WALKER IN IT HAS ATTRACTED A LOT OF ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE SENATE CANDIDATES. SO I’M PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT VOTERS WILL COME TO FORM OPINIONS ABOUT THESE TWO. BUT IN THAT PROCESS, WE MIGHT SEE A LOT OF MOVEMENT UP OR DOWN.

ZAC SCHULTZ:

ALL RIGHT. CHARLES FRANKLIN, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME.

CHARLES FRANKLIN:

THANK YOU.