Here & Now

Charles Franklin Outlines Latest Marquette Poll Results

Zac Schultz:

But first, the campaign for governor is heating up and there’s nothing like a new state-wide poll to stoke voter interest and talk. Joining us to talk about the race is Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll. Thanks for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Good to be here, thanks.

Zac Schultz:

Now, the latest poll shows Governor Scott Walker with a three-point lead with registered voters. But when that pool of voters shrinks to likely voters. Mary Burke pulls ahead by two. As we get closer to the election does the distinction between registered and likely grow more important?

Charles Franklin:

It does, just as people might change their vote over time, they can also change their intention to vote. A lot of research has shown that early in the year likely voters really don’t know if they are likely or not. As we get closer and closer to the election day, certainly after Labor Day, people should pay more attention to the likely voter results, and give less attention to the registered voter. Right now we're in that transition to registered voters, moving over to paying more attention to likely voters.

Zac Schultz:

And with that switch in the lead, that matters even more, especially to the Burke campaign.

Charles Franklin:

It does. We have now seen that in two surveys in a row. In July Burke was ahead by one, with likely, Walker ahead by one with registered. Now that's barely moved. There's very little movement here, but it’s repeated in the August data.

Zac Schultz:

Governor Walker’s unfavorable rating went up this month hitting 50% which is a threshold incumbents never want to be at. The poll was conducted August 21st through the 23rd. And right in the middle of that the latest John Doe documents came out. Is it possible some of these respondents saw those headlines right before taking the call?

Charles Franklin:

It’s certainly possible. We completed about 550 of the 800 interviews by Friday night. That means that only a minority of 300 or so out of the total sample reasonably could be expected to have seen it. So it’s possible, but I'd be surprised if it had a big impact with so little time for it to filter through.

Zac Schultz:

On the other side, a lot more voters are actually forming an opinion of Mary Burke. The number from those who didn’t know her, hadn’t heard enough about her, went from 49% to 29%. Is that her showing up on a ballot or is that more TV ads?

Charles Franklin:

It’s the combination of voters beginning to tune in more. But it’s also the case that over this last month or so, we have seen both campaigns significantly ramp up their advertising and their campaign rhetoric back and forth to each other that then becomes part of the daily news cycle. Voters are hearing more about these candidates. Over the course of the year, Burke has gone from 70% who didn’t recognize her in January all the way down to now about 30%. And that, of course, will continue through the election.

Zac Schultz:

One of the biggest issues in the race is jobs. And both candidates have been using different numbers to talk about where Wisconsin ranks among our peer states. But the polling shows people think we’re lagging behind, and that's grown since July. Does that mean Mary Burke’s argument that we’re dead last in the Midwest winning?

Charles Franklin:

Well, it certainly makes it look like it is having an effect. Whether it's news coverage about jobs or advertising is impossible to say. But in July, 51% thought we were at least keeping up with other states, if not doing better. That fell to 42, and those thinking we were lagging went from 43 to 48. There’s real movement there, and that’s the most movement we've seen in about a year on that measure. So it does look like that message is getting through. It’s very fascinating right now because you have both campaigns making directly opposite claims about the jobs picture. Watching how this measure changes over the next few weeks will be a good indicator of which campaign is really winning on that message. You know, Governor Walker is now out with positive ads which play off the fact that a majority of the polls still say the state is headed in the right direction and that all of the changes in the last year will be for the good in the long run. So these competing messages play to the strengths of both campaigns. We are going to watch those to see how they move.

Zac Schultz:

Switching races, for the first time we're seeing some numbers in the attorney general's race. We actually have final candidates. And it's not surprising, most voters don’t know much about either person.

Charles Franklin:

A phenomenal number don't. I believe it's 82% don’t know Susan Happ. 87% are less sure about Brad Schimel. And again, compare that to Mary Burke was unknown to 70% when she first got in the race. This is really hype. Now, it'll go down, it'll go down rapidly. But those two candidates will have to compete in the shadow of the governor’s race. But it’s nice to now have candidates and see how that race develops.

Zac Schultz:

We've got some numbers. Among registered votes, Happ's up early, and the same with likely. Is there enough oxygen left in the room for them to actually develop on their own?

Charles Franklin:

I think it’s going to be a bit of a struggle. They're a little better off than if we also had a senate race going on this year. There are really two statewide major races. I think they will get the attention. Because they differ on a lot of issues and because I think both sides realize the importance of the attorney general’s position vis-a-vis whoever wins the governorship, there will be a lot of attention, there will probably be a lot of outside money focused on that race as well.

Zac Schultz:

All right. We look forward to your next poll. Thanks for coming in.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.