Here & Now

Election Breakdown: McCoshen and Ross

Frederica Freyberg:
With less than two and a half weeks until election day, the campaign is definitely heating up in Wisconsin. Next week, Donald Trump visits the state to rally for Scott Walker and Leah Vukmir. Bernie Sanders also heads to Wisconsin for Tony Evers and Tammy Baldwin. And the ad wars kick into overdrive. In tonight’s closer look, a visit with our favorite partisan commentators. Liberal Scot Ross of One Wisconsin Now and Conservative Bill McCoshen of Capitol Consultants. Thanks very much for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:
Thanks.

Frederica Freyberg:
First out of the chutes here, plagiarism. The Walker campaign found that Tony Evers had plagiarized passages in his DPI budget. Is this a big deal?

Bill McCoshen:
Could be. Depends on how the Walker team uses it. I mean you got the head of the — the superintendent of public instruction, his staff gets caught copying someone else’s work and not citing it. And then worse than that, I think compounding the problem for Tony Evers, is he said there will be no consequences for those staff. That’s like telling a kid it’s okay to cheat on your homework. There will be no consequences if you get caught. So I think the setup of that really depends on how the Walker team uses it today, tomorrow. Do they put it into an ad? If they don’t, it probably goes away in a couple days.

Scot Ross:
Walker’s had 29 ads. They’ve pelted Tony with accusations of pornography, that sort of thing. It hasn’t moved the needle. I don’t think this is going to matter. When you’ve got basically the last two weeks of this campaign and Trump coming here. You on one side have to motivate your troop’s racism, sexism and some might say fascism versus plagiarism. I will take the left-hand column to motivate the base.

Frederica Freyberg:
Speaking of Trump coming, does that help Scott Walker and Leah Vukmir?

Bill McCoshen:
I think it does. Midterms are generally based on base. That’s why Bernie Sanders is coming for turn out, not only for Tammy Baldwin but Randy Bryce and others. It’s why Donald Trump is coming for Leah Vukmir and Scott Walker. I would have recommended they put him in Green Bay. Looks like they’re going to put him in Wausau. That’s probably the second best market, at least in my opinion, to put him in. It’s Trump country for sure and it reminds people they have a big, big election less than 16 days from now.

Scot Ross:
Democrats have lost off-year elections for the last 30 years basically if you’re name isn’t Jim Doyle, because our base doesn’t show up in these off-year elections. Trump is nothing more than absolute — an absolute catalyst to make the democratic base show up. And bringing him to Wisconsin could not be a bigger gift. Can you — let’s — Green Bay? Let’s go to Milwaukee and Madison. Bring Trump wherever because again Democrats lose these elections because their base doesn’t show up. The older, whiter, maler Republican base is already going to come to the polls.

Frederica Freyberg:
It was reported this week that the White House discouraged the president from visiting Wisconsin as a waste of time, it was reported, because Scott Walker was going to lose. Does internal polling there really show that?

Bill McCoshen:
I don’t think so. I think it’s a dead heat either way. It’s one or two points in favor of Evers or Walker. It’s hard to tell. Their internal polls say the same thing. The Charles Franklin Marquette poll says the same thing. So this is a coin toss at this point with 16 days to go. A little tip of the scale could be significant.

Scot Ross:
We’re definitely — I’m going to definitely agree with Bill. We are in the midst of a one/two-point race at best right now. And this is about the last two weeks, basically. And right now, we’ve seen, you know, there is enthusiasm. Right now, we’ve had about 110,000 early votes cast. That’s down from 2016 when it was 160,000. But that’s still a massive number. Presidential race. So I would say this. Walker bringing — you don’t see Walker talking about, hey, I’m great. I’m glad that Trump’s coming here because it would be ridiculous for him to do it because Trump is so toxic. The only good news coming out of the fact that Donald Trump is coming here for Scott Walker is the fact that they’re doing it at the Mosinee airport so as we know, Scott Walker knows where the airports in Wisconsin are.

Bill McCoshen:
As I think I said before, I would have had Trump in here earlier for sure, especially for the U.S. Senate race. With that being now double digits, at least on the public polls, that’s a big gap to close.

Frederica Freyberg:
Switching gears a little bit, do you believe that the Kavanaugh confirmation actually did energize the GOP?

Scot Ross:
Absolutely not. Listen, let’s be very clear. The pundits were saying, the Republican pundits before Kavanaugh said if Kavanaugh doesn’t get elected — or doesn’t get approved, it’s going to energize the Republican base. After Kavanaugh got approved, the pundits are saying it’s going to energize the Republican base. The fact is that the Republicans now control the Supreme Court. If you are starving, if you are the Democrats and you need food, you are going to be much more aggressive about getting that food and not being say on the other side that’s fat and happy and has the court where it’s wanting and in the future may need more food, so to speak.

Bill McCoshen:
Sadly, I’m going to have to agree with him on that. If you look at the September Marquette poll and the October Marquette poll, the enthusiasm gap was plus 11 for Democrats in September. It’s now plus five. So maybe there’s a little bit of an uptick for Republicans. They’ve closed the gap on the enthusiasm. But the Democrats still have it. So while some states, particularly U.S. Senate race, did enjoy sort of the Kavanaugh bounce or a Kavanaugh effect, we haven’t seen that here.

Frederica Freyberg:
What should we be looking for in the next two weeks?

Scot Ross:
I’d say a couple things. One is, again, how does the Evers and how do the Democrats play the fact that Scott Walker — er, that Donald Trump is coming here for Scott Walker and Leah and Brad Schimel. Second is what are the Democrats going to do to motivate the movements that have arisen out of Trump being president? Black lives matter, the moms demand action, you know, the don’t separate families and then the women’s march. Those are the reasons why — those people’s enthusiasm over the last two years is the reason we think there’s going to be a wave.

Bill McCoshen:
For Scott Walker, he’s going to keep it on the issues. If this election is a referendum on issues and the direction this state is heading, Scott Walker wins. If it’s a referendum on him personally, he’s in dangerous territory.

Frederica Freyberg:
Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross. Thanks very much.