Here & Now

Charles Franklin on Wisconsin's 2022 Candidates and Issues

Frederica Freyberg:

Fresh off the primary election, voters are turning their attention toward the candidates and issues that will motivate them to get to the polls in November. Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School poll, joins us now with his latest results and thanks for being here, Charles.

Charles Franklin:

Thanks, thanks for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:

Starting with the race for governor, incumbent Democrat Tony Evers has a two-point lead on Republican Tim Michels, with the independent candidate scoring 7% of respondents’ favor. But now Tim Michels is refuting your numbers and is quoted today as saying he believes he’s actually up 5 to 10 points on Evers. What is your response to that?

Charles Franklin:

Well, I stand behind our poll. First of all, we are transparent all of our questions, all of our results, all of our methodology are online. Anyone is welcome to look at it and believe it or not, believe it or refute it. But campaigns are absolutely free to say whatever they want about the polling results. So I welcome Mr. Michels’ comments as I welcome the comments of any candidate, but I do my business and I’m transparent about it and upfront about it.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. By your polling, it is pretty tight. How does the independent vote factor in this race?

Charles Franklin:

Well, in the governor’s race, independents are leaning just a little bit to Tony Evers. Partisans are very strongly aligned with both party candidates so that has not changed. It’s interesting that Tim Michels seems to have gotten about a five-point bounce up after the primary. It was a seven-point Evers’ lead in June and now it’s only a two-point lead. So Michels has benefitted by five points on that margin from June ’til now. It’s a good example of how even a hard-fought primary can actually help a candidate.

Frederica Freyberg:

Yeah. How might Donald Trump’s endorsement of Michels help or hurt him, do you think?

Charles Franklin:

Well, that’s hard to say. Within the Republican Party, 77% have a favorable view of Donald Trump. So it’s certainly an asset within the party. But two-thirds majority, more or less, have an unfavorable view of Trump in the public at large. So shifting from a very positive effect in the primary to a potentially negative effect in the general is an interesting problem and tradeoff for Trump-supported candidates.

Frederica Freyberg:

And there is a lot going on right now in regard to the former president, so that could shape things, I would imagine, going forward as well. Or maybe not. But in the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Mandela Barnes is up seven points on incumbent Republican Ron Johnson. But as you know, Johnson has weathered this kind of polling before and then won. What about that?

Charles Franklin:

Absolutely. Also, let me point out that Barnes was leading by two before and now by seven. He also got a five-point bounce from the primary, so both the Republican and the Democratic primary winners benefitted, I think, from their primaries. As for Senator Johnson, yes, he was behind in 2016, but his campaign steadily improved over the spring and then closed the gap with Feingold throughout the fall so that’s a great example of effective campaign that accomplished its goals. Now the question is, can he do it again?

Frederica Freyberg:

Anything else stand out about this race and these poll numbers?

Charles Franklin:

Here again, the partisans are just super strongly aligned but Barnes is very positive with independents, getting a bigger share of the vote with independents than Evers is in the governor’s race. So, the difference between Barnes’ seven-point lead and Evers’ two, is coming primarily from those independents that are more pro Barnes. The trouble for Barnes is 41% don’t know much about him. 34% don’t know much about Michels. Both of those candidates still have to introduce themselves to a fair chunk of the voters.

Frederica Freyberg:

Johnson’s favorables are really upside down. Barnes polls much more favorable than unfavorable. Is this any kind of an indicator at this point?

Charles Franklin:

I think it’s an important indicator in that Senator Johnson has been underwater, more unfavorable than favorable, for many months now, over a year, more than that. And has not seen much upward movement. Also, only 15% say they lack an opinion of Johnson, so it’s a smaller pool of voters for him to move. It’s a much bigger pool for Barnes to move but that’s a double-edged sword. He could move them in his favor or have them moved against him by the Johnson campaign, so stay tuned for that action.

Frederica Freyberg:

So you’ve said one of the more striking results in your poll is how Democrats and Republicans assign very different priorities to issues. Take, for example, on the issue of climate change. It’s Democrats’ top issue and Republicans least important issue. Does this again show the entrenched partisan polarization?

Charles Franklin:

It absolutely does and it’s the very different emphasis that’s being given. Climate change stands out because it really was the number one issue for Democrats and the dead last of nine among Republicans so there is a huge difference in emphasis on that. But there are others where there is a substantial difference as well.

Frederica Freyberg:

So, on the issue of overturning Roe, for example, it stands out to me that 28% of Republicans oppose that and 62% of independents oppose it? How does that play in eventual votes for candidates?

Charles Franklin:

I think on the abortion issue, you see a solid majority in the state that wishes the court had not overturned Roe. You also see this near mirror image between Republicans and independents. 62% of Republicans favor the overturning, 62% of independents oppose that overturning. Democrats are nearly unanimous on the issue in opposition.

Frederica Freyberg:

So inflation touches everyone, but it’s important to 91% of Republicans and just 42% of Democrats. Is this because it’s the number one campaign issue hitting Joe Biden?

Charles Franklin:

I think it’s the number one issue. It’s an issue tailor made to attacking any incumbent president, blame them for inflation no matter what the party is. Democrats seem to discount inflation as an issue as you can see while Republicans emphasize it and independents end up somewhere in the middle. It’s been the number one issue in every poll we have done since last August.

Frederica Freyberg:

It’s pretty easy to understand and globally experienced, I guess. On parental leave, it’s also surprising to me that 65% of Republicans favor it. What do you surmise that’s about?

Charles Franklin:

I was surprised by this. In the Republican gubernatorial debate, all three candidates seemed to endorse the idea of parental leave though not in specific detail. So I thought it was important for us to ask about it because this is an issue where Republicans generally have opposed requiring businesses to offer paid parental leave. But as you can see, solid majorities of every partisan group are in favor this time. I hope we’ll see that talked more about in the campaign and see how people feel after it’s debated.

Frederica Freyberg:

Back to the candidates and their campaigns, how rough and tumble are these two statewide races going to be, do you think?

Charles Franklin:

Oh, I think extremely so. Both the size of the people that don’t know either Tim Michels or Mandela Barnes is an invitation for the other campaign to try to paint a negative picture. And a struggle for the candidate to make themselves look positive while also criticizing the incumbent that they are running against. Negative campaigning is hardly anything new, but I think we are looking at two hard-fought battles on both sides, both campaigns

Frederica Freyberg:

Here it comes. Charles Franklin, thank you very much.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.