Here & Now

Candidates Line Up in Wisconsin for 2020 Race

Frederica Freyberg:
We all know Wisconsin is ground zero for the 2020 presidential race. Look no further than the number of Democratic candidates who have already made swings through this battleground state. With President Donald Trump arriving this weekend in Green Bay. It’s no secret why the Democratic Party is hosting its convention in Milwaukee next summer. Everyone needs to win over Wisconsin, but what kind of message and whose will resonate? For this, we turn to our political panelists, Capital Consultants Bill McCoshen and the return of Democratic strategist Scot Ross who rejoins us after a brief job-related departure and some convincing on our part. So thanks to both of you for being back here again.

Scot Ross:
You need to twist my arm.

Frederica Freyberg:
We want our departing gift T-shirt back. No, I’m just kidding. You can keep it. But as to all of these folks: Klobuchar, Sanders, Booker, Beto, Donald Trump tomorrow. Joe Biden, when is he going to appear?

Bill McCoshen:
You want to take it first?

Scot Ross:
You know, I mean, I have to think that the circle is going to — the cycle is going to continue. I mean Wisconsin is a great state. It’s a state that we have to win. It’s a state that we can win. And you know, it certainly has that appeal. You know, there’s urban areas. There’s rural areas. There’s universities. There’s manufacturing. It has all the hallmarks of a great state that you need to win if you want to be a Democrat who wins the presidency. That is for sure.

Frederica Freyberg:
So he says Democrats can win. What do you think? Wisconsin.

Bill McCoshen:
Well, yeah, they’re 8 and 2 in the last ten presidential cycles here in Wisconsin. Trump won here three years ago. I think he’s in a good position to be re-elected here. But the record since 1980 is 8 and 2. So there’s no question that they have an advantage.

Frederica Freyberg:
So what is the message that Wisconsin voters want to hear?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, I think as it relates to the trips, this will be Trump’s 18th trip to Wisconsin since he came down the escalator in June of 2015. That’s extraordinary. And it’s a formula we used with Tommy Thompson all the time which is presence equals popularity. He knows where he has to be and he goes there. And he competes for those votes. I think the results speak for themselves. The fact that he was able to win the state when a George W. Bush or H.W. Bush, you know, wasn’t able to win the state. People want to be courted and they were courted here by Donald Trump.

Frederica Freyberg:
Is it as simple as that, though, just if you show up, you win?

Scot Ross:
I think no. I think that there is an absence — to re-litigate 2016 for just five seconds — there was an utter and complete absence of television presence by the Democratic candidate for president at that point in time. So places like Eau Claire, Wausau, La Crosse, where there are good solid pockets of large Democratic voters. They weren’t given any reason necessarily to go out, be inspired and go to the polls and vote. Meanwhile the Republicans, they had a guy who was on TV for 16 years, who is out saying the things that apparently will make them go and vote. It’s about turnout.

Frederica Freyberg:
Speaking of saying things and the message, what is the message, do you think, that is going to resonate with Wisconsin voters?

Bill McCoshen:
For Trump, I think it’s the economy. Today the new GDP numbers were out. It was 3.2 for the quarter, which was spectacular. Well above the expectations and it’s been averaging about 3% or better in every quarter that he’s been president. So we were told in the Obama White House that, you know, 1% or 1 1/2 was the new normal. It’s not even close to the new normal. It’s the economy.

Scot Ross:
I think that you should talk GDP all you want and my side will talk about how people’s taxes went up despite the fact that millionaires and billionaires had their taxes go down. I just read a thing today. It’s sort of buzzing on the news. Gold star families have been socked with tax breaks. These are people who their family died in the line of service of this nation. They get a $15,000 death benefit. Woman reported that she paid $1,100 in taxes on it last time. This time she’s paying $5,500. That is not something that you can win re-election on when, again, if you’ve raised our taxes, you’re going to have a real problem with it. You know, Republicans have been running on that for years, whether Democrats raised them or not.

Frederica Freyberg:
Did the Mueller Report break President Trump’s stride at all?

Bill McCoshen:
I thought it helped him, no question about it. It put this issue to bed. Democrats, some Democrats, not all, Nancy Pelosi being a great exception here. She wants to move on from that. She doesn’t believe it’s helpful to the Democratic Party. I can’t believe I’m saying it. I agree with Nancy Pelosi. It’s not helpful for Democrats. It is helpful for Trump for Democrats to continue to beat that dead horse because it’s not going anywhere.

Frederica Freyberg:
Is that a dead horse?

Scot Ross:
I disagree completely because I will say this. You know, there’s the political thing to do and then there’s what’s right to do. It’s very clear that Donald Trump committed a series of impeachable offenses. Not just one, not just two but several of them. Obstructing justice. You know, inciting — calling for the inciting of violence. The conspiracy to commit, to commit, to commit crimes. That’s where Stormy Daniels payment was funded.

Bill McCoshen:
He said there was no basis.

Scot Ross:
He did not say that. He said I cannot, I cannot rule it out. Oh, the attorney general. Sorry, oh no, the attorney general definitely did.

Bill McCoshen:
Right.

Scot Ross:
But the attorney general is a hack. The fact is —

Bill McCoshen:
Eric Holder wasn’t, right?

Scot Ross:
The Democrats are going to have to proceed on some sort of exploration about what happened because Democratic voters, particularly angry Democratic base voters, see their neighbors and friends being incarcerated for crimes and Donald Trump just simply going away, being able to buy himself out or buy time out of it.

Bill McCoshen:
Bring it on. I love it. It makes Nancy Pelosi weaker. It makes Democrats weaker. It makes Trump stronger. Keep it up.

Scot Ross:
I would remind, after the 1998 — in 1998 when the impeachment was going on with Clinton, it started in December. 1998 was defined by impeachment. Tommy Thompson won with 60%. The House Democrats picked up five seats. The Senate was a wash: 3 to 3. And they picked up — and Democrats picked up one governor. It did not hurt the Republicans in any way, shape or form to proceed down that nonsense of impeachment. Let alone this actual real tangible reason that needs to be explored.

Bill McCoshen:
Let’s be clear about something. There’s about 30 or 35 new Democrats in seats that Trump won just two years ago. There’s no chance they’re voting for an impeachment. Nancy Pelosi doesn’t have the votes. That’s why she’s not — she says she wants to move on.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. Let’s move along to state side stuff. The lame duck legislation that is now at the high court, Wisconsin Supreme Court. What is up with that with the liberals wanting to take to the high court and get it out of the appeals court?

Scot Ross:
Well, like I say, when we talk about legal strategy, I’m not a lawyer. So I don’t quite understand the legal rationale for that. But I think they probably, you know, it’s going to inevitably end up there anyhow, so why not take it there now and see whether or not you can convince Dan Kelly, who’s the swing vote because he’s up for election in 2020, when Democrats are going to be voting in hoards, what is he going to end up doing on this.

Bill McCoshen:
I think both sides want some finality to this. So the Supreme Court is the only place they’re going to get that. Messing around in appellate court doesn’t make any sense. It’s just going to drag this out even longer. So I think going to the Supreme Court on both sides was the right answer. And let’s get some finality to this once and for all.

Frederica Freyberg:
All this talk that we’ve heard ever since Tony Evers came into office about working across the aisle and finding things, you know, that we can work on in a bipartisan way, is there anything to be had in your minds in the state budget or otherwise where?

Bill McCoshen:
In the first hundred days, zero. There’s nothing he can point to where he’s worked across the aisle. Whether it’s pre-existing condition, where Robin Vos did try and cut a deal with him. Vos ultimately passed the bill that he thought he had a deal with with the governor. Or it’s the middle class tax cuts which Tony Evers ran on and efficiently vetoed. I would say that’s their biggest misstep in the first hundred days is they do not have a bipartisan accomplishment.

Scot Ross:
I mean after what happened with the lame duck and the way that they’ve negotiated. I mean, you know basically it’s like you dump a bucket of water on somebody and yell at them for being wet. I mean it’s ridiculous. And I think that, you know, the still de facto leader of the party here, Scott Walker, is a great example of the sort of tenor of what Republicans are doing right now. Tony Evers, Governor Evers has gone out of his way to reach across the aisle, to meet with Republicans, to hold budget listening sessions all over the state so people can share ideas, actually, not craft the budget in secret which has happened the last eight years, but real ideas. And he is getting nothing.

Bill McCoshen:
What one issue has he tried to work with them on?

Scot Ross:
Criminal reform. I think that’s one place where we’re talking about.

Bill McCoshen:
I think there will be some bipartisan support for that.

Scot Ross:
I think we can get something done on transportation because we have to.

Bill McCoshen:
That wasn’t something he ran on. I think you’d agree on that. That wasn’t one of his big items.

Frederica Freyberg:
What about this idea, though, of pouring cold water with this lame duck stuff right out of the chute.

Bill McCoshen:
I worked for a governor for 10 years. You’ve got to be above that. You have to know — you gotta focus on your agenda, stay disciplined on your message. You do have to work behind the scenes in some cases with the legislative leadership to try and accomplish your agenda. At the end of the day, he’s going to get judged on his results and so far, they’re pretty sparse.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. You guys, we have to leave it there. Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross, thank you very much. Welcome back. Great to have you back together again. Thanks.