Charles Franklin on Wisconsin a Month Out From the 2024 Vote

Frederica Freyberg:
In the latest Marquette Law School poll, Democratic candidates Harris and Baldwin are up on their Republican challengers. We get the numbers now from poll director Charles Franklin. And Charles, thanks very much for being here.

Charles Franklin:
Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:
So as we headlined, Kamala Harris polls 52% to 48% for Donald Trump. Now these are the same numbers as last month. So nothing’s moving the needle.

Charles Franklin:
Not much in the near term. Back in July, after Harris first got in the race, it was Trump by one point with registered voters, Harris by one point with likely voters. That has moved to a four-point Harris lead, which is then repeated in this latest poll. You know, remember we were off by four points in 2020. So if you subtract that four points, we could be dead tied if we have as big an error as we did in 2020. Of course, I hope that our poll is more accurate this time.

Frederica Freyberg:
So in the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Tammy Baldwin is at 53% to Eric Hovde’s 46%. How does this compare to your last poll?

Charles Franklin:
This is an increase. It was a four-point Baldwin lead in early September, 7% now. Over the whole course of the campaign, we’ve seen earlier polls as close as four or as wide as seven. And we did have one result with likely voters that was 50-50, though that was early in the campaign, and we haven’t seen a similarly close race there.

Frederica Freyberg:
Do you have any idea what might explain her pulling ahead like this?

Charles Franklin:
Well, she’s been strong all year as Democrats quite unified behind her, but also doing well with independents. In the last two polls, though, she’s increased her advantage with independents. I think that’s helping explain how we’ve gotten to a four or now a seven-point lead. Hovde on the other hand, is unifying Republicans so there’s less of a crossover vote than there was way back in the early spring.

Frederica Freyberg:
Interesting. So you had an interesting question about people who have stopped talking to each other about politics and 46% said they had. Now, you note that this is higher than in the past two election cycles. Does this surprise you, though, given the rhetoric out there?

Charles Franklin:
Not given the rhetoric. You would expect we’re more polarized by a whole lot of measures, but we’ve asked this — we originally asked it just before the gubernatorial recall in 2012 and then in ’16 and in ’20. And those three times we’ve asked have been 34, 35 and 36% stop talking. So a ten point increase this year, I think, does tell us a little bit about a more polarized, more personalized politics.

Frederica Freyberg:
So on enthusiasm to vote, which is a super important measure, the overall enthusiasm to vote is very high at 67%, with Democrats even more so at 71%. And it has jumped the most for independents, 50% of whom in this latest poll say they are enthusiastic to vote.

Charles Franklin:
Yeah, independents had been lagging in the 30s all year. This is the first time we’ve seen a big bump up with them. I think that means, in part, that they’re beginning to tune into the race. Unlike partisans, they’re not sitting rooting for a candidate since January and are now getting more engaged. But early in the year, Republican enthusiasm was well higher than Democratic enthusiasm. With the change of candidates, Democrats moved up almost catching Republicans in July and moved ahead in early September. Now, Republicans have moved up as well and closed that gap. A very small Democratic advantage. But now both parties look as mobilized as they were in 2020. That suggests we’ll see a similarly high turnout in November, as we did in 2020.

Frederica Freyberg:
Talking about the independent vote, when you consider that 61% of independents say they support Harris, compared to 39% for Trump, is that an important measure?

Charles Franklin:
It’s a very important measure. There are only about 12% of voters that call themselves independents that aren’t closer to either party. Independents had favored Trump through the spring, and still favored Trump by a little bit in July, when Harris was first in the race. But we now have two polls in a row with independent support around 60% for Harris. You always worry with independents because they can change their mind. They’re a fickle group that because they don’t have party loyalties, they may shift and now could shift again. But seeing two polls in a row with that significant uptick and strong Harris support I think is important and it helps account for why Harris is up by four points instead of two points or one point.

Frederica Freyberg:
So on the issues, Trump wins again on immigration, the Israel-Hamas war and the economy, while Harris wins on fair and accurate elections, Medicare and Social Security, abortion policy and health care. And yet the economy, of course, remains the singular most important issue to voters. But is the economy as ruinous as the GOP is telling us it is right now?

Charles Franklin:
The economy is pretty good. We’ve seen good job reports and the dockworkers strike just settled. So there are positive economic indicators. But the negativity about the economy is still pretty high. We’re getting I think it’s about 30% in this poll say the economy is doing poorly. Only 38% say it’s excellent or good. So that’s a pretty poor picture of the economy. The fact that people still say the economy is the most important issue, and that Trump has about an eight point advantage on that issue, is why this race is still close and why Donald Trump could still win this race on the most important issue, even though Harris has advantages on abortion. And on personal traits, she’s seen as having the right temperament to be president and Trump is not. So it’s — we’ve got conflicting forces here. The economy being a real strength for Trump.

Frederica Freyberg:
Lastly, with less than a minute left, you did another question about property taxes versus school spending. 56% of respondents say reducing property taxes is more important than increasing funding for schools, which sits at 44%. Big shift.

Charles Franklin:
It’s a big shift over a longer period of time. In 2018, those numbers were almost exactly the opposite. High 50s favoring schools, low 40s or even 39% saying property taxes was more important. And those numbers have moved steadily over these last six years until they’ve completely reversed. So this — and I would say that was after support for schools built from 2012 through 2018. So we’ve really ridden this cycle up with support for schools. We’ve now ridden it down and concern for property taxes now higher levels than what we saw in 2012, 2013.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. We’ll leave it there. Charles Franklin, thanks very much.

Charles Franklin:
Thank you.