Anthony Chergosky on the Landscape of Wisconsin's 2024 Vote

Frederica Freyberg:
Reproductive rights were said to be a primary driver for voters in Tuesday’s election. But were they? What was? We turn to UW-La Crosse political scientist Anthony Chergosky for his take. And thanks for being here, professor.

Anthony Chergosky:
Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
Is it fair to say that the main driver of Donald Trump’s win was voters’ unhappiness with the economy?

Anthony Chergosky:
I think so. Just general dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. And there could be different factors driving that dissatisfaction. But when we look across the country, there was this uniform swing towards the Trump ticket across all kinds of geographic areas, across all kinds of demographics. So it tells me that this election was bigger than any one specific region, any one specific geographic area, any one specific demographic. Though there are some demographics that do stand out as particularly significant. In general, this just seems to be a broad repudiation of the Biden administration.

Frederica Freyberg:
Yeah. So you’re quoted as saying that the results underscore Trump’s ability to make largely uniform gains across all types of geographic areas and all types of demographics. You say some of those demographics stand out. Like what?

Anthony Chergosky:
The Latino vote. When we look at areas with a concentrated Latino vote, we see a stark trend towards Donald Trump. So those states with high levels of the Latino population, that is a big part of the post-election analysis, I think. But of course Wisconsin, very much a majority white state. So the racial and ethnic politics of Wisconsin are different than, say, a state like Arizona or Nevada. So we did see Wisconsin follow slightly different trends than other states. In fact, the swing towards Trump was not as substantial in Wisconsin as in some other states. So I think all of that is relevant when we do that post-election analysis.

Frederica Freyberg:
Were you surprised at all by the gains on Trump’s part nationwide but even the smaller ones in Wisconsin?

Anthony Chergosky:
Yeah, he did make some small gains in Wisconsin, ultimately enough to put him over the top here, but it was still a really close election. And now, Fred, we get to say that the last three presidential elections in Wisconsin were each decided by fewer than 30,000 votes. So Wisconsin entered this election season as the ultimate swing state. I think we emerge from this election season as the ultimate swing state. There is always talk about states becoming swing states or states that were swing states no longer being swing states. Speculation about, say, if Wisconsin goes the direction of Ohio, going more Republican. Goes the direction of Virginia, going more Democratic. But I think we’re right back where we started, Wisconsin being that key swing state.

Frederica Freyberg:
So even though suburban Milwaukee continues to edge toward blue in parts of it, Donald Trump gained in places like Madison on the UW campus. Who are his voters helping him make those kinds of gains?

Anthony Chergosky:
There’s a lot of talk about young men, and the gender gap is a big storyline in this election. We’ve seen a gender gap in American elections for years and years and years where women are more likely to go for the Democratic Party, and men are more likely to go for the Republican Party. And we see that gender gap across all ages. But there are signs that the gender gap is particularly pronounced among young voters. And this fits into the lose buy less motto that Republicans had when it comes to Madison and Milwaukee. They know they’re going to lose those areas, but they wanted to lose them by less than they did before, and it seems like they accomplished that.

Frederica Freyberg:
So the gender gap, obviously again, was a big consideration. But some seem to be surprised by how many women actually then did go ahead and vote for Donald Trump.

Anthony Chergosky:
It’s a big part of the story, right? Because ultimately the Harris team could have benefited from an even larger gender gap. The big question going into this election, just how big that gender gap would be. The exit polls give us some indication. I think there’s going to be more data on that that gives us a clearer vision of what exactly that gender gap was. But watch that gender gap among young voters. I think that’s going to be really important in upcoming elections.

Frederica Freyberg:
So in your neck of the woods in the third congressional district, Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden won handily. What kind of coattails did he get from Trump and what was that race about?

Anthony Chergosky:
Yeah, as expected, Derrick Van Orden won by a bit. This was anticipated to be the most competitive U.S. House election in Wisconsin, and indeed, it was. A big part of the election was the spending on the Democratic Party side. Rebecca Cooke enjoyed much more spending to support her candidacy than the Democratic candidate in 2022, Brad Pfaff. So I think that contributed to the competitiveness of this election. Ultimately, Van Orden won this election by roughly the same margin that he did in 2022, and you can bet that the parties are wasting no time in looking ahead to 2026, as this is, I’m sure, once again anticipated to be the most competitive U.S. House district in Wisconsin. I think it’s going to stay that way for at least the next election cycle or two.

Frederica Freyberg:
You were saying that Rebecca Cooke did really well compared to the top of the ticket candidates?

Anthony Chergosky:
Yes. Here in La Crosse County and in some of the surrounding counties that I’ve been able to look at, Rebecca Cooke did better than Kamala Harris. In fact, there are places where Rebecca Cooke did better than Tammy Baldwin, and that is no easy feat in Wisconsin politics, because we know that Baldwin has a strong track record of electoral success. So I think that people are going to emerge from this election with a positive attitude towards the Cooke campaign. She didn’t quite win, but she was able, in key situations to do better, maybe even substantially better than the other Democrats on the ballot.

Frederica Freyberg:
And so you’re saying look ahead two years.

Anthony Chergosky:
Yup, yup. Do we get a rematch? I mean, we’re always looking ahead to the next election as political fanatics. But do we get a rematch? I mean, when Derrick Van Orden did really well in the 2020 election, he came up a little short, but it was clear that he could run for 2022 and do quite well that year. Are we in the same situation right now? I think there’s going to be a lot of focus on this congressional district moving forward. I don’t think the 2024 election does anything to change the fact that this third congressional district is a key one in Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. Anthony Chergosky, thanks very much.

Anthony Chergosky:
Thank you.